Decomposition Of Industrial Carbon Emission Factors And Threshold Effect Analysis In Beijing Tianjin Hebei Region

With the rapid industrialization of China,China has gradually grown into a large industrial country,and its production capacity has gradually increased.At the same time,excessive consumption of fossil energy has also resulted in a large number of carbon emissions.The industrial economy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the largest economic regions in China.This thesis studies the dynamic relationship between industrial carbon emissions and its influencing factors,and provides data support and policy suggestions for the formulation of industrial carbon emission reduction measures in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This thesis takes Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object,draws lessons from the research results of industrial carbon emissions at home and abroad,and based on the data of industrial sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2017,makes the following innovative research on the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and its influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:First of all,this thesis calculates the industrial energy consumption and industrial carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2017,and analyzes the current situation of industrial economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that the industrial energy consumption and industrial added value in Tianjin and Hebei Province keep the same growth in the process of rapid industrialization,while in Beijing,on the contrary,the industrial carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province are on the rise as a whole.Secondly,the LMDI factor decomposition method is used to decompose and analyze the industrial carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,calculate the contribution value of each factor to the industrial carbon emissions,determine the main reasons for the change of industrial carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,in order to find out the change law between industrial economic development and carbon emissions.The results show that the continuous expansion of industrial scale is the main factor leading to the growth of industrial carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the energy intensity is the main factor restraining the growth of industrial carbon emissions.Finally,Based on the industrial carbon emissions of the three provinces and municipalities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2017 as the research sample,unit root test,cointegration test,Hausman test,and covariance test were used to analyze the industrial carbon emissions of the three provinces,cities,and municipalities.Long-term and short-term dynamic evolution relationship with various influencing factors.Based on this,a panel threshold regression model of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei’s industrial carbon emissions and main influencing factors is constructed,and the non-linear relationship between different influencing factors and industrial carbon emissions is specifically quantified,and the differences in industrial carbon emissions in the three provinces,cities,and regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are analyzed.