Research On The Characteristics Of China’s Coal Mine Accidents And The Combination Forecasting Model

In the past few years, China’s coal mine safety production accidents show a downward trend year by year, coal mine safety production situation also tends to improve, but the total amount of coal mine accidents is still very large, especially serious accidents still occur from time to time. Compared with the main coal producing countries in the world, China’s coal mine production safety level still has more obvious difference. Therefore, it is imperative to further enhance the level of safe production of coal industry in China. Statistical analysis of coal mine accidents can clarify the basic characteristics and evolution regularities of coal mine accidents, which can help to push forward China’s coal mine production safety accidents precaution work smoothly. Prediction of coal mine accidents statistical index can provide objectives scientific basis for the development of national macro decision-making as well as coal mine production safety management.This paper focuses on research on the characteristics of China’s coal mine accidents and the combination forecasting model, and the research contents of this paper are carried out from the following three aspects: Firstly, the statistical analysis method of accident and the theory of prediction are researched in detail. In the aspect of accident statistics analysis method, the grouping method, the chart method and significance test method are analyzed. In the aspect of accident prediction theory and method, two theoretical supporting points-Markov theory and Grey theory are analyzed in detail, which modeling principals and process and the reasons for applicability in the prediction of coal mine accident are mainly introduced. Secondly, through citing China’s 2005-2014 coal mine accident data, our country’s coal mine accidents are systematically analyzed from the region, ownership, type, and time of four dimensions based on grouping method, chart analysis method and significance test method. The basic characteristics and evolution law of coal mine accidents are clarified, and the causes of the accident are analyzed in detail, which provide scientific guidance for the development of the regulatory system and the prevention and control measures. Accident statistics analysis outcome also laid the data foundation for the accident prediction. Finally, in view of the intrinsic deviation existing in the conventional GM(1, 1) prototype. The unbiased grey Markov combined prediction prototype is constructed to predict the million tons death rate of coal mine by unbiased grey GM(1,1) prototype instead of the conventional GM(1,1) prototype in the paper. The prediction results show that the unbiased grey Markov prognosis prototype of the prognosis error indicators are better than that of grey prognosis prototype, unbiased grey prognosis prototype and grey Markov combined forecasting prototype. The results further illustrate that the validity and rationality of the unbiased grey Markov forecasting prototype that is build in this paper.In this article, the quantitative prognosis and the accident qualitative analysis that are combined are used to the coal mine accident precaution. On the one hand it is possible to find the focal point to further reduce accidents, improve coal mine safety production level of coal mine production safety, and promote the sustainable development of coal mine safety production based on reality. On the other hand, it is also possible to provide scientific basis for the national macro decision-making and coal mine safety management objectives formulated, decision-making more scientific, control emphasis more specific, and target more with rationality and feasibility.