Gm Models Based On An Improved Mine Safety Accident Prediction And Analysis

With the rapid development of China's national economy, the demand for mineral resources, the rapid growth of mining enterprises for production safety situation is still grim. For the management of the mine accident uncertainty, this article related to the use of gray system theory of knowledge, aimed at building a basic analysis of the mine accident prediction model, for enterprises to adopt targeted measures provide a basis.Its main contents are as follows:(1) The number of accidents is the main performance of safety in production form, in order to better study the safety of mine production,in this paper, the calendar year on production of a mine accident type, output, number of employees and other statistical data collection and analysis.(2)Characterization of the accident casualty rate is the state of mine safety in production composite indicator, in this paper, the gray system theory in the gray GM (1,1) model applied to a mine accident casualty rate forecasts,in order to improve the forecast accuracy and the accuracy of the results, introduced a Markov random process theory and the Markov chain buffer operator of these two methods to improve the model, checking through the example of the improvement of models to predict the rate of mine injured people, as well as the accuracy of the two models were analyzed to improve the comparison.(3)In this paper,a mine in accordance with the actual situation of production,the impact of the accident casualty rate of selected factors that happened,and the use of gray correlation analysis method to the extent of the impact analysis of its associated sequence,to make the mine safe production management to take proper safety measures have targeted to reduce the accident happened,so targeted, the focus of safety work to master,this gray relational analysis method,with errors small and accurate characteristics.(4)In this paper,based on gray system theory prediction model,the procedure at Jawa-assisted design tools to compile accident casualty rate gray Markov prediction algorithms,and verified through an example for future mine production safety incident management job to provide an effective platform for auxiliary information. This paper studied the contents of most of them have very much belong to applied research can be carried out on metal mine safety dynamic or static prediction,prediction results are scientific,systematic and specific characteristics.