Study On Coal Mine Accident Cause Analysis And Forecasting Model Based On Gray Theory

China is in the process of modern industry, the demand for energy will increase further. Most coal mining operation in our country take underground production, the production environment and condition is relatively complex, improve coal mine production safety is a fundamental prerequisite and guarantee sustainable development of the coal industry. For a long time according to the research achievements of coal mine accidents, mostly adopt the method of qualitative analysis but seldom adopted the combination of qualitative and quantitative method, the lack of scientific theory to guide the safety production of coal mine work.In this paper, Based on the research of the gray system theory, combine with actual production conditions of coal mine enterprises, from the angle of modern science theory and practice of coal mine safety, in-depth research on the mechanism of coal mine accident causation, and based on the optimization of existing model put forward the improving model, through the data instances to verify correctness and feasibility of the model and apply the model into the specific project example, provide more convenient and accurate research methods to the dangerous and harmful factors of the coal mining enterprises’scientific management, accident prevention and control harmful factors.Firstly types of accidents for coal mine accidents were analyzed and given preventive measures. Then, base on the grey system theory, According to the factors affecting coal mine accident death toll and mortality, to establish grey comprehensive grey relational analysis model to improve the existing model for calculating the grey correlation degree model, and modify the result. Secondly establish the Variable Weight Grey of clustering model, put forward the simplify traditional calculation method of the whitenization weight function, established level-four models, and gives the weight calculation method, Write the corresponding MATLAB program for the above models and apply the modle into analyze specific examples. Against the Lion Roc coal mine of Yunnan Province, based on the comprehensive gray relational analysis model with the hazardous and harmful factors of the mine production,using quantitative means scientific troubleshoot control the priority of the risk, and make the analysis of the results’causation, provides a new research means for the safe production coal mine accidents’enterprise and harmful factors control system, followed apply the gray clustering model into the safety Production Status five coal mines of Yunnan Province, assess and combined with mine safety checklist given the level of security and safety measures; Finally create improved Euler method, logarithmic transform method, and the least squares method three grey accident prediction models, Elaborated the applicable conditions of the model, Validate and predict the Coal mine one million tons mortality of our country in 2013-2015.In this paper, establish the appropriate gray analysis model and verified the correctness of the model, and then identify the hazardous and harmful factors of the Lion Yunnan coal mine production’s safety, and assess the five coal mines’production safety situation of yunnan province, for coal mine work safety in production has strong reference significance.