Research Of Ecological Security Assessment Based On “3S”techniques And SD Model In Panzhihua City

Ecological security, as the kernel and foundation of sustainable development, has been an important frontier of the study of ecology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and geography. Panzhihua city has become the key part to achieve sustainable development of Sichuan Province with specific eco-environment characteristic as one of the most important mining cities in China. The rapid development of economy and vulnerable eco-environment leads to serious eco-environment problems in Panzhihua city, at the same time, a new round of development creates opportunities as well as challenges. Judging from above, making assessment study about ecological security has theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of economy, society and eco-environment and improvement of eco-environment.Combined with GIS, RS and GPS techniques and SD Model(System Dynamics Model), in retrospect of the previous researches and models both at home and abroad,this article makes comprehensively analysis on the basic of the information extracting from TM images and statistic data and considers the background of environment and policy, to find out the ecological security problems existing in Panzhihua city and set the interpretation signs to extract the land-use data; establishes the indicator system of ecological security basing on society, economy, and nature that suitable for Panzhihua city as a mining city based on ANP-PSR-SENCE; makes modeling and simulation concerning the developing trend of ecological security; analyzes mechanism and connection between various factors and ecological security applying system dynamics models to reveal the dynamic process; then uses AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) to determine the index weight, making comprehensively assessment on the base of indicator system and SD modeling, on this basis, making ecological security classification in Panzhihua city. The main research achievements of this article are as follows:(1) Based on the natural and social dynamic system, we systematically analyze the change of ecological security structure of Panzhihua city. The special geographical location of Panzhihua city depends on the complexity and uniqueness of ecological security problem. The social structural transformation of the economy will bring new pressure and more challenges to ecological construction. The natural hazard like thedamage of forest vegetation, water less and soil erosion increase the diversity and dimensional stability of ecological risk source, also threatening fragile ecosystem. It’s meaningful and sobering that how the process of mineral resource development influence ecological security of Panzhihua city. We build various land using symbols by using 3S skills, also combining unsupervised classification and interpretive method to divide cultivated land, water area, meadow, and forestland data etc.(2) Through building index system structure of ANP-PSR-SENCE ecological security evaluation and combining network analysis, the pressure-state-response PSR model and composite ecologist system theory to build SD model of ecological of ecological security, and separately pick up 12 specific indexes which come from society, economy, and natural. This structure comprise five subordinate system of population, economy, resource, environment and ecology, which effectively guide the index selection and weight defining and provide reference basis for ecological security comprehensive evaluation of Panzhihua city. In the next five years(2016-2020), through emulational experiment of ecological security, the moderate and high speed growth of economic will become the major pressure of ecological security in Panzhihua city. The environment pollutant mission which comes from the process of mineral resource development causes great damage to the quality of ecological environment.(3) In the ecological security, the level of ecological security stay at the level 3which means accomplish the general level of ecological security and have a tendency of keeping increase. Comprehensive evaluation of Panzhihua city, ecological risk,ecological health and ecological insurance are inseparably interconnected. These factors rise being equal with community economy, accompanied by ecological security index which indicates the recovery of ecology in Panzhihua city. Meanwhile ecological risk and security index as a standard to estimate the level of aggregation in ecological system and influenced by composite index and ecological health index. It’s essential to seek a balance between resource and ecology in order to keep economy harmonizes with resource and natural so that to strengthen the security, health and insurance of ecology and make sure ecological risk under the control for maintaining sustainable development of Panzhihua city.