Analysis On Variation And Influential Factors Of China's Carbon Intensity

Carbon emission intensity refers to the amount of carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product(GDP).According to Chinese government's commitment,the carbon intensity decreased by 40%-45% by 2020 than in 2005.Firstly,the article analyzes the relationship between energy carbon emissions and GDP from 1990 to 2013,from the general characteristics and decoupling relationship.The results suggest: ?there is a strong correlation between energy carbon emissions and GDP;?From1997 to 1998,energy carbon emissions and GDP are in “absolute decoupling”.From 2003 to2004,they are in “non-decoupling”,other years in “relative decoupling”.Secondly,this paper measured carbon emissions of energy consumption and cement production of 30 provinces in 1997?2002?2007 and 2012 with IPCC methods,and took carbon intensity as the carbon emission index to study distribution characteristics?regional differences and agglomeration phenomenons of carbon intensity by classification comparative analysis ? Theil index and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)method.Results indicated that:(3)there exists a significant difference in carbon intensity among 30 provinces,and the development trend of overall carbon intensity toward middle and lower ranks;(4)there exists an obvious difference in carbon intensity among the East?central?western and northeast four regions,and the overall distribution differences are mainly from the regional differences;(5)there exists a positive correlation characteristic in carbon intensity among diverse regions,the provinces with L-L correlation pattern are increasing.The provinces with H-H correlation pattern are decreasing.Thirdly,This paper based on the existed researches,selects economic data of urbanization rate?foreign founds?the degree of foreign opening?energy intensity?the proportion of secondary industry and GDP as influencing factors,establishes the dynamic panel data model,then uses the generalized method of moments(GMM)to evaluate the estimator of the parameter,and makes a concrete analysis of their impact on the carbon intensity among provinces in China.Results indicated that(6)The previous period carbon intensity has positive influence on the present situation and China's carbon intensity is inertia,it's coefficient is 0.4782.(7)The urbanization rate?the foreign founds ?the degree of foreign opening and the energy intensity presented significant influence,their coefficient is 0.0681?0.1656?0.1576 and 0.4219,respectively.(8)The proportion of secondary industry and GDP have a negative impact on carbon intensity their coefficient is-0.1159 and-0.2395 respectively.Lastly,based on the Haken model of self-organization,the evolution model of energy carbon emissions and GDP is built,then forecast the growth of energy carbon emissions and GDP.The results suggest:(9)China's energy carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 is dropped by 45.18% than that in 2005.(10)From 2015 to 2020,its energy carbon emissions increase by an annual average of 3.17%,with real GDP growth by an annual average of6.44%,energy carbon emissions and GDP are in “relative decoupling”.Finally,trend function of the evolution is constructed to simulate the evolution process of energy carbon emissions and GDP system,and to analyze the order parameter and control variables,we found:(11)the energy carbon emissions is the order parameter in the evolution of energy carbon emissions and GDP system,and it dominates the development of GDP,carbon intensity,and the evolution process of the system;the change of control parameters can also led to changes in trend function,thus affecting the adjustment and evolution of the system.