Research On Regional Difference And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In China

Global warming is one of the most serious environmental problems and the most complex challenge in the 21 st Century.The fact that greenhouse gas emissions especially those of carbon dioxide caused by human activities is the key to global climate change.The main major to slow down the climate warming is to reduce carbon emissions.With the increasing tendency of global warming and the frequente disaster event,carbon emission reduction become more difficulte.Now,efficient ways is seeking by various countries in the world to respond to global warming.China which is the biggest carbon emissions country,not only has to face the pressure of international on carbon reduction,but also domestic problem of resource and energy.Under the pressure of international and domestic,China proposed its own reduction targets.However,the fact of carbon emissions in China is not only high,but also disequilibrium.The equitable distribution of emission reduction quota and realization of emission reduction target rely on assurance of the present situation and the cause of carbon emission.It’s necessary to analyze of regional difference and evolvement rule for policy making on carbon emission reduction.Start with the research background,the relevant research literature is reviewed and commented.Based on uncertain factors of carbon emissions estimating measures which are suitable for china are proposed and carbon emissions of China areas is estimated and compared.The regional difference of carbon emissions is measured and decomposed upon the country and the three major areas.The evolution tendency of the regional difference is also investigated.Then the comprehensive index system of carbon emissions’ influence factor is established to quantitatively analyze relation degree and find the main influence factors of regional carbon emissions.The interaction between economic growth and carbon emissions as well as the impact of population development on carbon emissions is in-depth explorated.The principal research results are reflected in the following five aspects:(1)In allusion to the present situation of carbon emissions and the relative climate change report in China,the major source of carbon emissions is analyzed.The primary cause of carbon emissions’ uncertain factors is investigated in the basic framework of carbon emissions measurement.Then estimating measures which are suitable for china area are proposed and 30 regional carbon emissions are estimated from 1997 to 2015.The regional difference of carbon emissions is analyzed and compared by taking carbon emission,carbon intensity and per capita carbon emission as index.It is different from former research that few fossil fuels are selected by most research as activity data.The subdivided fuel type and fuel end use as well as the industry emission source are not considered.The selection mode of "activity data" and "emission factor" are summarized and compared.The merit and demerit of various estimating measures are quantitatively analyzed by the measuring results.Start with the final consumption,the standard which is used for burning purpose is to distinguish all of the fuel type in energy statistics of China.On the cosideration of industrial manufacture emission source,calculating method of reginal carbon emissions which is fit to China is proposed which the consistency of activity data selection and accuracy of carbon emission calculation are increased.The result shows that the regional difference of carbon emissions is significant.(2)Using carbon intensity and per capita carbon emission as investigation target,the regional difference of carbon emission is estimated and decomposed by Theil index,and the cause of regional difference is also analyzed.The R/S fractal analysis of nonlinear theory is used to investigate development tendency of carbon emissions regional difference.The R/S fractal analysis of nonlinear theory which is different from the form research is more aligned with nonlinear characteristics of carbon emissions regional difference.The result of Theil index shows that the overall difference of carbon intensity and per capita carbon emission is increasing and intra-regional difference make the main countribution to overall difference.Relatively speaking,the countribution of inter-provincial differences is less.The result of R/S fractal theory shows that H value is between 0.5 and 1 while D value is between 1 and 1.5.The regional difference of carbon emission has self-similarity and state persistence followed by Hurst law.(3)The comprehensive index system of carbon emissions’ influence factor is established to quantitatively analyze relation degree and find the main influence factors of regional carbon emissions.The result shows that grey relation degree of economic growth as well as urbanization level and household consumption from the whole country and east-central-west are above 0.6 mostly.It indicates that they are the most important influence factors for carbon emission.(4)A simultaneous model which contains a carbon emissions equation and a production equation is constructed.Three-stage least squares is used to analyze the two-way effect mechanism between economic growth and carbon emissions.The environmental Kuznets curve is also investigated.The single equation model is the main method to analyze the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in the former research which ignores the reaction of carbon emissions on carbon emissions.The variable of economic growth and carbon emissions is included in a system by simultaneous equations model which can check the interaction of variables.The result of carbon emissions equation shows that the relationship in the nation and the west is N-type Curve.Linear increasing relationship existes in the east area and convert N-type Curve existes in the middle area.There is no obvious relataionship in the east.The bilateral interaction is existed between economic growth and carbon emissions.(5)Based on the STIRPAT model,the variables of population size,urbanization level,household size and household consumption which reflect the impact of population development on carbon emissions is introduced to the static and dynamic panel data model.Static model is the main method and the research perspective is mianly on national level in the former research.Static panel data model is estimated and dynamic panel data model is constructed which investigated the dynamic effect of carbon emissions.The analysis result of regional level provides better targeted advice.The result shows that the population and household consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions.The impact of urbanization level on carbon emissions depends on areas.The household consumption level is the driving force in the increase of carbon emissions.The effect of last period carbon emissions is positive to current period emissions.Carbon emissions in China are path dependent.