| Puding county, as typical karst landform area, has improved its brittle ecological environment since the start of return the grain plots to forestry project. This article extracts the land use/cover and landscape pattern based on the classification result of CART decision tree using“3S”technology. Based on principal component analysis, quantitative evaluation of the main change of landscape pattern and trigger event analysis were performed. On the basic of ecological ecology principle, the Ecological System Services Value of 1999-2015 was estimated. Based on the combination of these results and CA-Markov model, land use pattern and Ecological System Services Value trend of 2021 Puding county was predicted. The result showed that:(1)The total classification accuracy of 1999, 2003, 2009 and 2015 RS images and Kappa up to 90% and 0.89 respectively, which denoted that the classification result is effective. According to the result of RS images interpretation, the statement of land use of Puding was analyzed, showing that the total area of Puding county was 1078.26km~2 and the general trend and condition index first increased and then decreased, which indicated that the later stage land use extent of Puding county was not acuter than that before and tend to stability as a whole, in which the area of field, barren and forest land was 80% in the total area. The synthetical index and land use area extent of field and barren in 16 years both decreased and the area decreased 163.96km~2 and 50.67km~2 respectively, which were mainly in the mid-south and conversed to forest area, grassland and construction area. The area of forest and grassland increased rapidly, 62.5% and 59.61% respectively. Water area, the least vital one, decreased 3.74km~2.(2)Analyzing from the perspective of landscape pattern, the number of total patches decreased 5332 and the average patch area had a trend of declining and the extent of landscape pattern fragmentation was heavier. The area of forest and construction area increased and the space tend to be more collective. The conversion of field and barren area brought about the decrease of patches number and average patch area. From the perspective of landscape heterogeneity variety, there were little change of fractal dimension,a trend of regular shape, an agreeable various trend which is 0.19 and 0.11 in diversion index and evenness index of landscape of Puding landscape pattern. At the meantime, the dominance index declined 0.19, which indicated that field has lower and lower power in controlling the whole landscape pattern and the important component tend to be varied and landscape heterogeneity increase and the land use pattern develops towards more varied and even. Among them, the separability and fragmentation tend to increase and the distribution tended to be more dispersive. In contrast,the forest, grassland and construction space were more centralized. Meanwhile, the general contagion declined, which demonstrated that the connectivity of field and fragmentation of patches tend to be more intensive.(3)As known from principal component analysis, the landscape pattern change was mainly shown in land use area variety, land use dynamic component shape and structure and landscape heterogeneity variety. Among them, land use area variety and landscape heterogeneity variety were the dominant change components in the whole study area. The driving mechanism effected the land use landscape pattern variety of Puding include natural component and anthropogenic component. Where anthropogenic component was the main driving component and dominated by industrial restructuring and the effect of Political orientation component.(4)From the perspective of ecological economics, the variety of land use landscape pattern had a massive impact on the Ecosystem Service Value. The Ecosystem Service Value of Puding has risen from 8.51 billion to 9.88 billion during 16 years. Where the Ecosystem Service Value of field and forest was more than 80% of the whole value and the Ecosystem Service Value of forest risen most rapidly, which was 62.49% and straightly connected with the rising of forest area. From the perspective of single ecosystem service, the Contribution rate of water conservation, soil formation and protection and waste treatment function add up to 50%, where water conservation risen from 1.31 billion to 1.51 billion. The Ecosystem Service Value of food production decreased 0.12 billion account for the industrial restructuring. Through the process of sensibility analysis, all of the sensibility indexes were less than 1, which denoted that the Ecosystem Service Value evaluation result was reasonable and effective.(5)Land use pattern condition of Puding in 2015 based on CA-Markov model is of high accurate, which have a Kappa index of 0.8537 compared to real distribution result. The Prediction of land use condition of Puding in 2021 showed that there will be an obvious variety in each landscape types from 2015 to 2021. Among them, grassland and construction area tend to increase 16.85 km~2 and 32.86km~2 each. Meanwhile, filed area has decreased 41.78km~2 while other land use types will have little changes. The total Ecosystem Service Value in 2021 will be 9.58 billion. |
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