Simulating Dynamics Of Landscape Pattern And Subsequent Ecosystem Service Value In The Longjin Watershed Of Jiulong River

The selected study Longjin watershed is the second largest river in Zhangzhou City. While Longjin watershed is the nearest small watershed next to water-intake of Zhangzhou and Xiamen, it has great influence on the water quality of this water-intake. Hence, the regional ecological security of Longjin watershed is of great significance. Longjin watershed is succumbing intense anthropogenic pressure and its land use/cover has changed considerably. This study therefore addresses the link between land use/landscape dynamics with ecosystem services value at scale of Longjin watershed with the goal of enriching domestic scientific data and to provide the facts and evidence for regional sustainable development.Based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery of study area in1986and2007, basic data information of land use/cover change was harnessed. On the basis of these data, analyses on the extent of LUCC (Land Use and Land Coverage), the speed of LUCC, the degree of the land use, the spatial and temporal changes of landscape pattern were effectuated. Furthermore, with the predicted result of CA-Markov model, the concept and methods of Ecology were used to estimate the Ecosystem Services Value of land use/landscape pattern and the following results deduced.The result of the analyses of landscape pattern quantitative structure showed that, from1986to2007, the main land use types were forest land and cultivated land,87%of the average share of the total area. Moreover, forest land and cultivated land were the main matrixes in the study area. The general change of land use pattern presented "three increase, two minus, one stable" characteristics. That is, a decrease in forest land and cultivable land; an increase in built-up land, orchards and barren land; decent water change and stability. The biggest variation of LUCC type was in the built-up land with an average annual increase of25.04%. The degree in land use was relatively high, and there was an upward trend. The land utilization rate was not well improved, which expressed as increase in the area of barren land.The result of the analyses of landscape pattern spatial pattern shows that patch dominance of forest land and agriculture land of Longjin watershed has always been high in the study period, which showing obvious concentration distribution, better connectivity, large patch. The connectedness of building land is getting better. The connectedness of orchard is well in the overall, but the patch dominance of it is not high. Water land is plaque crushing and the patch dominance is small. The connectedness of barren land is poor and the patch dominance of it is small. Landscape scale analysis shows that the level of overall patch aggregation is declining, the evenness of landscape pattern was increasing of the overall.The result of the analyses of Ecosystem Services Value showed that the total quantity of value of ecosystem services decreased from1986-2007. This was as a result of a decrease in forest land and water land though the single value of ecosystem services of forest land and water land was very high. The decrease in the total quantity of value of ecosystem services also portrayed a decrease in ecosystem services function and this further indicated that the change in land use types of Longjin watershed are unsustainable from a macro point.The result of the analyses of ecosystem service function value of single item of Longjin watershed showed that the total value of all service items witnessed a decline from1986to2007. This indicates that ecosystem functions in this study region are degrading and it is therefore suggested that the land use/landscape pattern should be optimized in order to promote an environmental friendly regional economic.The Kappa index of LUCC simulated by CA-Markov model is0.8762, indicating a high confidence level for the verification of model. Therefore, the verified model was further to simulate the land use pattern in2018. The simulation results show that the built-up land and orchard increase while the forest and agricultural land shrink in the Jiulong River Watershed.Based on the CA-Markov model to simulate land use change in Longjin Watershed in2018, the result shows that the built-up land, orchard, water and barren land increase while the forest and agricultural land shrink. The Kappa index is0.7165, indicating a high confidence level for the verification of model.