Assessment Of The Drought Effect In Contiguous Extreme Poverty Areas Of China

Most of the poverty areas in China are seriously affected by drought.Under the background of global warming, they will face a greater risk of climate disasters, and further exacerbating their poverty. In this paper, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the innovative intensity-area-duration disaster identification method are used. The daily meteorological observation data from National Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration and the social economy and land use data is used to analysis the population, GDP, and arable land exposed to drought between 1961 and 2014. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic pathways of IPCC and the regional climate model from The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the drought events and its impact on social economy are estimated between 2017 and 2050. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Most contiguous extreme poverty areas showed dry trend from 1961 to 2014. The times of drought are more in the eastern region. The duration of drought is longer in the western region. Most of the drought events lasted for 1 month, and the single event affects the area up to 2.13 million km2, the maximum intensity up to -2.6. The drought events with large intensity and area are mainly located in contiguous extreme poverty areas of the West, and mostly occurred in 1967-1979 and 2009. An average of 362 million people,590 billion GDP and 691 thousand km2 of arable land were exposed to drought events. Drought affected population and arable land decreased in 70 and 80s,and increased after 90s, which affected the overall GDP showed an increasing trend.(2) Most areas in contiguous extreme poverty areas are showing an increasing trend of drought disasters from 2017 to 2050 under RCP2.6,RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Most of the area affected by drought will over the base period. The average annual drought occurred 55.8 times, 61 times and 61.1 times under the 3 scenarios. The drought events over the base period of maximum intensity occurred mostly in the western of contiguous extreme poverty areas. The population of contiguous extreme poverty areas will continue to grow under the SSP3 pathways, which faced high challenges of climate change, the other path to peak around 2030, after gradually reduced.The GDP of contiguous extreme poverty areas will have a substantial growth under SSP1-5 pathways. The fastest growth in the SSP5 pathways, the slowest development in the SSP3 pathways, the maximum value can reach 10 times and 3 times the level of 2010 respectively.(3) The population and GDP exposed to drought events under the combination of 12 RCPs-SSPs scenarios will reach 1.9 times and 6.5 times of the historical period respectively. The drought affects the least population under the combination of RCP2.6 and SSP5 scenarios. The drought affects the least GDP under the combination of RCP4.5 and SSP3 scenarios. Under the RCP4.5-SSP3 scenario, the largest number of people exposed to drought disaster reached an average of 691 million people per year. Under the RCP4.5-SSP5 scenario, the largest number of GDP exposed to drought disaster reached an average of 4240 billion yuan per year. Under most scenarios, drought affected population increased. Drought affected GDP significantly increased under all scenarios.