The Relationships Between Arable Land Protection And Soci-economic Development —A Case Of Study Yanshan County

This dissertation takes Yanshan county as an example. In this dissertation, using principal components analysis and multiple linear regression model, the relationship between arable land resource and social-economic development have been analyzed and the spatial-temporal evolution of regional arable land quantity and GDP, grain production have been explored by baryeenter models. Finally, arable land area have been forecasted by BP neural network model,Then the countermeasures and suggestions of Yanshan county arable land protection have been put forward.(1) During 1996-2011, the arable land resources of Yanshan county is declining year by year with the growth of its population. The arable land decreased from 33478.49 hm2 in 1996 to 30740.89 hm2 in 2011, the total of reduction is 2737.60 hm2 and the average annual decline rate is 0.57%. The per capita arable land decreased from 0.085 hm2 in 1996 to 0.067 hm2 in 2011,and the average annual decline rata is 1.62%. The obvious regional diversity is the feature of the reduction of arable land in Yanshan county. And the biggest arable land loss in town level happened in the Hekou town,which is the area with huge population and the fastest speed of economic development in Yanshan county. The changes of Hekou town is much greater than the other towns in Yanshan county.(2) Using principal component analysis, The driving force mechanism of arable land have been analyzed by using principal component analysis and social economic index. it is concluded that there are Two principal component factors, social-economic development and agricultural science and technology progress. The results showed that there were very close relationships between. For the further research on arable land and and social-economic, urbanization rate, population and total output value of plantation, and the urbanization rate is the most significant reason for arable land loss. The multiple linear regression forecast model for predicting the area of arable land has been established.(3) This dissertation selects the GDP and food output to study the Spatio-temporal coupling of economic baryeenter and arable land baryeenter From 1996 to 2011. On the whole,the arable land baryeenter moved to the south west while the GDP baryeenter moving trajectoryed is to north east. Their moving trajectory and direction is were absoultely basically opposite. The moving trend of food output baryeenter is was consistent with arable land baryeenter in the east-west direction, however, the characteristics of which in the direction of for the north and south were exactly contrary.(4) According to the prediction results, in 2030, the area of arable land in Yanshan county will be 28614.10 hectares and the urbanization level will reach 66.10%. With the rapid development of urbanization, to a certain degree, so the occupation of arable land will be gradually reduced and the trend of of arable land loss will be gentle inclined.