Study On Investment Strategy Of New Energy Transmission Project Based On Economic Analysis

Clean energy and low-carbon are the national strategies of the energy development, but the large-scale grid-connected of new energy is accompanied with a large investment of on-grid transmission line projects. From the operation and management points of view, the profit of new energy transmission line projects for the electricity company is only based on subsidies on electricity price of new energy, because of the single function and low equipment utilization ratio of such projects. Therefore the electricity company’s decision of the new energy grid connection line project approval or repurchase has to depend on an accurate assessment of project economics. In this paper, based on the research on the new energy station construction and operation data in Gansu province,according to the use of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period and other mature project economic evaluation methods, the author analysesthe investment returns of the new energy transmission line projects in Gansu province, as well as the sensibility of such projects. On the premise of the full and on time new energy subsidies, the author calculates the maximum investment of electricity company during the new energy transmission line construction according to the project NPV. The quantitative technical and economic indicators for balancing the investments and the subsidies, gives the company sufficient basis for decision making on whether investing for the new energy transmission line.In the economic assessment process of grid construction projects, the impacts of the uncertainty of cash flow, the uncertainty of interest rate and the uncertainty of the project cycle should be considered for the assessment results.In order to make the economic assassments of the capital-intensive new energy transmission line projects more comprehensive and take in to account the uncertainty of the risk assessment, because of the interval mathematical analysis mechod is simple and can deal with uncertain inforamtion accuratly, author extends the definition of the real cash flow and real interest rate, propeses the definition of Interval Net Present Value (INPV),and establishes interval economics assessment methodof the grid construction project with considering the electricty price fluctuation. The interval cash flow and interval interest rate model, which is proposed by author, can deal with the uncertainty of electricity price fluctuation in the assessemnt.The author uses the acceptable range of electricity price fluctuation to provide the basis for the project interval cash flow adjustment and decision-making, which is more in line with the new energy transmission line project economics assessment. Compared with the triditional real NPV method, the proposed interval NPV method can not only determine the economic feasibility of the project, but also determine the approximate risk of the project implementation, which provide the decision-maker more comprehensive desision information of economic indicators.