Economic Analysis And Decision Planning Methods On Transmission Investment Under Uncertainty

It is critical period of rapid industrialization and urbanization for China during "the Twelfth Five-Year" as well as the next 20 years. And it is also important time for China to realize strategic energy transformation and scientific economy development. Meanwhile, as the growing concern about climate change around the world, low carbon economy and smart grid technology have became the focus of considerable research and investigation. As the core element which connects power generation and consumption, power transmission network serves as an important physical platform for electricity market trading and plays an important role in integrating large-scale renewable energy and promoting the development of smart grid. Besides, technological innovation and the changing external environment bring new problems and uncertainties to transmission investment decision and planning. Therefore, it is of great importance to study economic principle and decision planning method of transmission investment for the following reasons—better transmission investment benefit, large-scale integration, long distance transmission and efficient consumption of clean energy. Moreover, it is also of great significance to strengthen its supporting role in smart grid construction and finally realizing a secure, reliable, economic and environmental-friendly power system. Aimed at enhancing market efficiency and balancing interests of all parties, the economic benefit and decision method of transmission investment is studied so as to provide more reliable judgment basis for transmission investment decision. And it is studied with the consideration of uncertainties from policy implications, power characteristics, load variation, and relevant entities' behavior and so on. Then, the low carbon transmission investment planning method suitable for China is proposed, considering future smart grid development and objective requirements of renewable energy generation access.Firstly, transmission investment modes in uncertain market condition are summarized based on research of domestic and international transmission planning and investment framework. Three fundamental factors arising from economic relationship of "Electricity Market" are dialectically analyzed, and the major impact on transmission investment of the future electricity market development and low-carbon requirement is studied. And the concept, function, and shortcomings of two investment mode, control type and economic type mode are analyzed. Considering pros and cons of the two modes, as well as challenges of transmission investment under the new situation, the organizational structure and participants of transmission investment is defined, and the overall study framework of economic analysis and decision planning method of transmission investment is proposed.Secondly, specification expression system and economic assessment system of market efficiency of transmission investment under optimal Pareto condition is proposed, which based on microeconomics principles. And the market efficiency is simulated and analyzed by transmission test system. Three investment decision models are suggested with the objective function of maximizing social welfare. Ten economic evaluation indicators of transmission investment are derived from the application of production and consumption theory, market equilibrium theory as well as node price theory. These indicators are as follows:surplus and improvement level of generation enterprise and electricity consumers, congestion benefit and its improvement level, society welfare and its improvement level, congestion indicator and cost. Then, short-term transmission investment income for the whole and respective region is comprehensive analyzed, using an example of two-region interconnected transmission investment, which makes the foundation for economic analysis of transmission investment.Thirdly, based on economic indicator analysis of short term transmission investment decision model, the thesis addresses the question of how different investment modes impose on economic benefit of transmission investment. The investment modes are divided into three types, i.e. centralized, distributed and transmission right trade containing mode. Long term transmission investment decision model for the three investment modes is established respectively. The optimal investment for every mode and interrelation among them is quantitatively studied in terms of economics. In addition, multi-objective decision analysis model is suggested to balance the general interest of power generation companies, transmission companies and power consumers (represented by regulators), and the model is solved by FMOPSO algorithm.Fourthly, based on real option theory, transmission investment decision model is obtained using discrete and continuous random variables respectively, and theoretical criterion of optimal transmission investment is argued. Transmission investment decision method is researched and fuzzy binary tree model of option assessment for transmission investment decision is set up considering discrete price series. In views of continuous price series, transmission investment decision model based on fuzzy real option is recommended. The model is useful for investors to make the decision more effectively and to handle risk issues more reasonably. Then, decision model of transmission investment concluding flexible equipment is proposed and the option value of investment decision is estimated using the least squares Monte Carlo.Last but not least, considered the current low-carbon economic development mode as well as requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction, the economic benefit of transmission investment is studied from the perspective of renewable energy generation integration. And transmission investment planning model is put forward to meet the demand of large-scale renewable energy integration. Transmission investment efficiency assessment issues from low-carbon generation integration are argued and the assessment model considering renewable energy power generation access is established. Transmission planning model considering wind power generation integration constrained by random fuzzy of the best chance of the smallest is suggested. Then, learned from the bees feeding and mating behavior, chaotic quantum calculation method is introduced and quantum chaos bee algorithm is proposed to solve the above-mentioned transmission investment and planning issues. Considering the volatility of carbon price, the price is forecasted by use of EG ARCH (1,1)-t model and transmission planning model based on dynamic carbon trading price is proposed...