Renewable Energy Integration Analysis Model And Empirical Analysis Based On Risk Theory

The planning is the premise of renewable energy development, and the renewable energy integration ability has an important influence on the renewable energy development planning, power grid operation mode and scheduling plan. To calculate the renewable energy integration ability accurately, we need to consider the risk factors influencing the renewable energy integration ability. Therefore, this paper proposes an renewable energy integration analysis model based on risk to calculate the renewable energy integration ability accurately. We find that there are two categories of risk that influence the integration of renewable energy, the first category is analyzed quantitatively, including the system load level, system energy storage capacity, renewable energy transmission capacity, renewable energy forecasting factors; the second category is more suitable for the qualitative analysis, including the users’consumption consciousness, renewable energy integration subsidies, price mechanism, regulation factors. The actual renewable energy integration ability is composed of the theory value without considering the risk factors and the adjustment value considering the risk factors. There is much difference between the consequences obtained by the model considering the risk and that not considering the risk. When the renewable energy integration ability is insufficient, the renewable energy should be performed by transmission outlet. To a certain transmission channel, we can find the reasonable matching relationship between renewable energy installed capacity and transmission channel capacity so that making the renewable energy delivery landed price minimum. And the reasonable proportion between the renewable energy installed capacity and the thermal power installed capacity is about in the ratio of1:1.5to1:2.3. The renewable energy on-grid price mechanism must reacts the technological progress, and adjust the renewable energy on-grid price regularly. Meanwhile, the renewable energy delivery additional cost should be afforded by the whole society, and be better to propose other reasonable integration mechanisms.