Risk Analysis And Research Of Real Estate Item Investment

Real estate is a special kind of commodity, which has the characteristic of investment-long period, large amount and complex factors. Since the use right of the land were auctioned in Shen Zhen on Decl in 1987, it were declared that the real estate industry regenerated. Since then the real estate industry in China has gone through several phases: slow increase, rapid increase, dulling and recovery.With the sustained and sound development of our national economy in recent years, the real estate industry has witness a rapid development and gradually become one of the pillar industries of the national economy. The development of real estate is increasingly enlivened. People are confronted with the high interests as well as high risk which influences the whole real estate developing activities, Especially under the circumstances of imperfect market of real estate in china, once these risk factors take into effect, some developers may be in great lose, some even stand the edge of bankrupt. Therefore, we urgently demand to analyze and forecast the present condition and vary trend of real estate investment risk at the moment, and in practice an especially applied theory method to analyze it quantitatively and qualitatively. It is very important in practice that we do some works on real estate investment risk.Based on existing research achievement, the method in paper is posed which used the theory of correlation analysis, cluster analysis , reliability analysis and regression analysis .by that ,we can build up the optimum linear estimate function, and then carried on Risk Analysis And Research of Real Estate Item Investment. First, we study candidate variable through correlation analysis and cluster analysis in the method. Second, according to classified result, we chose variable to combine and make reliability analysis for variable combinatorial pattern .at last, we can set up the optimum linear estimate function involved multiple risk variable.The theoretical base of this method proposed in the paper is the classical mathematical statistical theory and fuzzy mathematics theory. With a strong theoretical basis, the paperreasoned rigorously. Apart from correlation coefficient bearing on the subjective estimation of decision-makers, the reasoning procedure is free from the intervention of decision-makers;therefore, it turned out a true and reliable solution. The paper carried out analyses over practical projects. The results proved that the method is strongly operative and reliable and it can pay a certain auxiliary role on investment decision-making of the real estate enterprise. Meanwhile, the method can be easily popularized. Besides the real estate industry, it can be applied to multi-project risk decision-making in various economic scopes.I hope this research could promote the study on real estate investment risk,and give an impetus to innovate the study on real Estate investment risk theoretically and practically.