The Research Of Forecasting Technology Maturity Of Product Based On Patent Analysis

Solve the problem of products and technology research and development efficiency is one of the most important issues of industrial engineering research. And product technology maturity prediction has play an important guidance role in improve efficiency of products and technology research. Product technical maturity prediction can help enterprises to improve the success rate of R&D, shorten development time, improving development efficiency.Along with the global economic integration to further deepen and the development of knowledge economy, both national level and corporate level competition is increasing fiercely. Many domestic enterprises have suffered strong impact from the advanced technology of western developed countries. The status of the technology capital is increasing prominently. To surviving in the increasing market competition, the enterprise needs to develop corporate strategy and development strategy accurately. To do this, the enterprise must accurately grasp the current technology’s position in the market and predict the development trend of the technology. Then to guarantee enterprise health sustained development, the enterprise formulate the scientific and rational enterprise development strategy, and fighting for get an impregnable position in domestic and foreign markets. Based on this, this article has carried on the product technical maturity forecast method research. By comparing the domestic and international mainstream prediction method, select the product technical maturity prediction method based on patent analysis, build the prediction model, and with the application of liquid crystal display technology in China in the study. In this paper, the research content mainly includes the following aspects:(1) Analysis of product’s technology maturity forecasting method. According to the main objective of the study, we had combed the concepts and principles of TRIZ theory, the theory of evolution technology systems and product technology maturity prediction theory on the basis of access to the relevant literature. These theories provided theoretical support for the research paper. On this basis, the paper reviewed the evolution technology systems theory and research status product technology maturity prediction methods, focusing on the research status of the product technology maturity prediction method. We compared three prediction methods for the current mainstream technologies. We had determined the prediction method patent analysis in the article at last. At the same time, we determined the patented method investigated by using Altshuller based on three different patents after inspection mode analysis. In this study, the paper had proposed product technology maturity prediction method based on Altshuller patent analysis method finally.(2) Forecasting model building. Based on research about Altshuller’s patent method, this paper puts forward three indicators of the technical maturity prediction model, respectively is:level of patent, patent number, and product profitability. And expounds the detail of dividing method of patent level, and put forward the method for measurement of the level of patent, patent number and of product profitability. Then build the product technology maturity prediction model, and introduce the steps of the prediction and evaluation.(3) Application research. In order to validate the feasibility and operability of the model, this paper use liquid crystal display technology maturity prediction as an applied research. Retrieval related patents in our country patent database, and filtering the unrelated patents. Then summary the patent data and Make a scatter plot, compared with standard curve model, and draw a conclusion that liquid crystal display technology has been in the declining period. Finally, this article puts forward countermeasures and Suggestions on its next development strategy.