Financial Risk Conduction Mechanism Research Of Our Country’s Housing Vacancy

Since the formulating and implementation of land relevant laws and regulations in1978, the real estate industry in our country has been through four stages, and the market has become a prosperous one. The linkage between the market and financial institutions is closer and closer. And also, there exist more and more factors hindering the development of the real estate market.China’s real estate irrational exuberance, while a large number of real estate expansion, there have been a series of problems, the current spotlight on the problem of vacant housing, China’s real estate market there is an unreasonable phenomenon, that is,the housing vacancy there are a lot of cases, our prices are still maintained an upward trend. The real estate industry is a capital intensive industry, in the development and sales of each link, need a lot of money, whether it is real estate developers or property buyers,need to bank loans, but these loans only when the risk of price increases in order to be hidden and the expansion of bank credit risk so slowly accumulate. When there are a lot of vacant housing, the real estate business since the house is not sold but can not recover the funds, real estate funds strand breaks, real estate developers may face the risk of bankruptcy, and ultimately unable to repay bank loans, bank loans to real estate developers unable to repay the loans turned bad the rate of increase in non-performing loans, leading banks. When the housing vacancy abound, from the relationship between supply and demand, the economic environment as well as people’s psychological expectations three shows that might affect the price fluctuations, if house prices fall, hidden in bank credit in real estate financial risks will immediately burst out, real estate related industries and financial institutions will be firmly caught, if an asset chain link broken, will lead to the outbreak of systemic risk in financial markets.In this paper, through the establishment of the VAR model to Analyze the housing vacancy rate and the relationship between the real estate financial risks. According to the empirical results, No mattew from the perspective of the real estate developers and individual buyers, Commercial housing vacancy rate in China’s rise will increase the risk of real estate finance. Among them, the personal housing financial risks is most affected by the housing vacancy, the overall real estate financial risks on the change of the housing vacancy rate has a certain lag effect. Exogenous variables within China’s gross domestic product there is significant positive correlation with the real estate financial risks, the rise in house prices will also produce positive role to real estate financial risks, but the impactwill be small. Urban residents income level can inhibit real estate financial risks, but the effect is not obvious. In the light of the above research, formulate the corresponding policy recommendations, solve the problem of housing vacancy, prevent the formation of real estate financial risks has become particularly important. The first is to take measures to digest vacant housing, improving housing security and housing rental system, Secondly,establish and improve real estate financial risk early warning mechanism, finally, to establish perfect real estate financial regulatory system, timely monitoring of existing problems in the real estate finance, precautionary management, guarantee the safe operation of the real estate market.