| China was one of the world’s largest livestock product producers. With the rapid development of China’s economy and the deepening of market reform, the government paid more attention to the "three rural issues", and gradually increased investment and policy support to animal husbandry, which developed rapidly. Since 1995 China had been the world’s largest meat producer. In 2006 China’s meat production accounted for the world’s total output of 1/4 or more. However, the proportion of China’s participation in international trade of animal products was very low, China just exported less than 2 percent of annual production. The export market share of China’s livestock product also declined, in 2012 fell to 2.42%. In 2000, China’s livestock product trade came up a deficit for the first time, for a deficit of 8 million, and became a net import country of animal products. Since 2000 China’s animal products export growth had been lower than the import growth rate, that resulting in continuous trade deficit and a highest record in 2012, deficit reaches 8.42 billion. And it was possible that the deficit situation would expand further. Foreign animal products entered domestic market and occupied more share, seriously impacted on the development of domestic animal husbandry. Therefore, studying the influencing factors on China’s livestock product trade deficit and putting forward reasonable and effective measures to alleviate the deficit situation had an important practical significance for the stable development of China’s livestock product trade, the healthy development of domestic animal husbandry and agriculture economy.Firstly, the paper grasped the current situation of China’s livestock product trade. China’s livestock product export trade mainly exported HS02 meat and edible miscellaneous spit, HS16 meat and HS05 other animal products, and the export market mainly concentrated in Japan and in Hong Kong. China’s livestock product import trade mainly imported HS02, HS41 eggs, honey, milk, HS51 animal fats and oils, and the main import sources were Australia, USA, New Zealand, Canada. The main varieties of China’s livestock product trade deficit were HS41, HS51. Overall, the trade deficit grew and waved obviously,2000-2003 the deficit grew slowly,2004～2006 declined slightly,2007～2012 grew rapidly.The paper analyzed the factors influencing China’s livestock product trade deficit from two aspects of qualitative and quantitative. Through the qualitative analysis, factors influencing China’s livestock product trade included international market factor and market factor. The international market factors mainly included the international market supply and demand, international trade policy and contingency factor, the domestic market factors mainly included domestic demand, domestic supply and the international competitiveness of Chinese animal products.In the aspect of quantitative analysis, using Jepma’s modified CMS model estimated the demand (supply) effect, structure effect, competitive effect on China’s livestock product import and export trade, the paper summarized the causes of China’s livestock product trade deficit:the export of China’s livestock product over-relied on the import expansion of other nations, the export commodities structure effect failed to fully come into play, the international competiveness of China’s livestock product was rather weak, the current situation of supply shortage leaded to the demand of import, the competiveness of imported livestock products was higher than China’s. Finally, based on the above analysis, the paper proposed to optimize the structure of exported commodities, try hard to improve the international competitiveness, enhance domestic supply capacity, actively improve domestic and international trade environment so as to reduce China’s livestock product trade deficit. |
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