Research Of Theory And Method On Technological Paradigm Transformation Foresight On The Perspective Of Technology Ecology

A series of technological paradigm transformation phenomenon occurs frequently, such as Kodak’s bankruptcy with digital imaging technology, Nokia’s decline with smart phones and Microsoft "a dominant" position’s wobble with Android system. It shows that "ant toppled elephant" is not only a reality, but also an increasingly common. In this context, if the dominant firms can foresee the new technological paradigm, and that identify and cultivate disruptive technology, it could be a helm of new technological paradigm and the leader of the industries. However, the present qualitative technology foresight methods based on linear thinking are still difficult to solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation with high complexity. As an auxiliary tool for the qualitative methods, scientometrics methods can overcome the shortcomings of qualitative methods that are too subjective in a certain extent,but the results are still needed to be recognized by the experts, then it can be adopted.Therefore, the Foresight work of technological paradigm transformation should be established in mastering the essence of new technologies producing and the mechanism of technological paradigm transformation.This study introduces the perspective of technology ecology to explain the technological paradigm transformation, and demonstrates its rationality and advancement. According to complexity of "technological paradigm" ecology, the study considers to establish a mixed model(according to the different stages of research, combing the quantitative and qualitative research path) to solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation. The mixed model should be based on identifying the characteristics of technological paradigm transformation.Chapter 4 describes the characteristics of technological paradigm transformation from interaction between technology, co-evolution between technological paradigm and technology habitat, the role definition of people and organizations, and constructs the initial predictable system of technological paradigm transformation.The empirical research is used to test the quantifiable characteristics of technological paradigm transformation in Chapter 5. The empirical results show that technology symbiosis,non-technical factors and intelligence factor have a significant positive impact on technological paradigm transformation. Technology competition has a non-significant impact.It needs further research to analyze the possible complex uncertainty relationship between technology competition and technological paradigm transformation. Secondly, it shows that intelligence factor plays an important intermediary role on the influence of technical factors to technological paradigm transformation. Chapter 6 validates the non-quantifiable characteristics based on the case study of tube and transistor about technological paradigm transformation, and describes the total process of technological paradigm transformation. The results show that there are autopoietic and selective combination behavior during the process of technological paradigm transformation. The “opportunity niches” of technology is the main driving force of the formation of new technological paradigm. The “opportunity niches” of technology includes “technology niche” and “market niche”. Differentiated combination of technologies provides “technology niche” and the change of technology habitats creates conditions for the generation of “market niche”. Only when the “technology niche” and“market niche” match for each, the new technological paradigm will form and mature. Finally,the “incommensurability” and “gestalt” conversion of technology community have an important significance on technological paradigm transformation.A brief summary, revelation and further research are given in Chapter 7. The predictable system of technological paradigm transformation has been improved. This study not only enriches the technological paradigm and technology ecology theory, but also provides some valuable reference for the enterprises and regional decision-makers to do the foresight work of technological paradigm.