Research On Technology Foresight In Key Technologies Option Of The Parmaceutical Industry In Jilin Province

As an innovation leading industry,not only as the fundamental impetus to upgrade the pharmaceutieal industrial structure and economy development, technological innovation is also the key factor that determines the industrial global competitive capability. As a result of the rapid development of life sciences and the industrial technology,pharmaceutieal critical technology and development model is uncertainty to choose,which brings risk to the government finance management and input of enterprise R&D. Therefore,as a new kind of strategic management tool combining technology and economy development as well as integrating efficiently all kinds of resources for optimized disposition,technology foresight would benefit government management of technical resources and forecast technical trend, and it has already made remarkable achievements in global and domestic practice.Parmaceutical industry as a advantage industry in Jilin province, It developes at more than the national average growth rate in the past 20 years in a row ,and also it is one of advantage industries ,which is in rapid development, good efficiency and great potential in all the industrial sectors of Jilin province .Rich medicinal resources and strong scientific research force laid a solid foundation for the development of the pharmaceutical industry in Jilin Province, and the government support pharmaceutical industry on the policy for its development. However, most of the pharmaceutical enterprises are lack of the ability of independent innovation, increased production costs, lower margins prevent the development of Parmaceutical industry in Jilin province. So Strengthen technical innovation, promoting industrial upgrading are the most important tasks of the government and enterprises.First of all ,this paper describes the theory of technology foresight, including its contents, the premise assumptions, the type of activity, role and the general process, which focuses on the activities of its type and function. In this paper, I used Delphi method as the main method, on the basis of technology foresight, analysising field of pharmaceutical industry,combining the technological advantages of Jilin Province, the industry needs and investigation in technology supporting, analysis the feasibility and necessity of technology foresight applied in Jilin Province. And study the other methods of technology foresight, such as scenario analysis, tree-related laws, patent analysis. technology foresight through the establishment of index system ,the valuation indicators, data analysis process, identify the new technology that may have the greatest economic or social benefits as the basis strategic decision for government and enterprises.Technology foresight activity is expected vigorous guarantee to achieve technological innovation and development strategies, it is a social systems engineering which was long-term forecast technology trends, comprehensive selection in key direction, optimized the allocation of scientific and technological resources , in the process of technology foresight, we must constantly improve the technology foresight methods and in accordance with the characteristics of different industries to set up the technology foresight index system.