Research On National Science & Technology Development Strategies Based On External Technology Foresight

In recent years, the climatic change, energy dissipation, the biological multiplicity reduced, chemical contamination, the urbanization confusion and polar ozone layer cavity phenomenon and so on have been unprecedentedly intensified.They had become enormous hidden danger of the human development. Series events came forth such as Pusztai, king butterfly, SARS, poultry flu and so on, enabled people to achieve the unprecedented stature to the technology development attention. The normative development of future technologies will be doubtless the most direct method to the humankind corresponding living condition safeguard and the most important confidence index. The Report of the Sixteenth National Congress expounded profoundly that, realizes population, economy, society, environment and resources benign interaction in the development. But the realization of this goal, needs the more effective national macroscopic policy-making pattern and method that develops strategies. At present some countries already succeeded the attempt utilization of technology foresight decision-making pattern, adapted the megatrends at the present era that society, economy and science technology develop,provided a new cognition method which will challenge to the future, created new recognition mechanism which choose the future direction. The tally of the technology foresight method and the train of thoughts about development of the human, will make the application of technology foresight pattern appear huge value in the exploration of our national science & technology development strategies not only in theoretically but also in the practice. On the basis of sum-up and pectination to the domestic and foreign technology foresight situation at present and the research on development strategy, on the assumption and premise that resource scarce, technology alternative, economic man with limited rational and information asymmetry etc., this paper proposed explicitly the concept of external technology foresight for the first time, and centers on the frame system to spread: First, is research on the external technology foresight;Secondly, is to unify the external technology foresight and the selection of national science & technology development strategy, elaborate concretely various aspect questions which needs to be clear when the external technology foresight method applied in the selection process of the national science & technology development strategy; Third, is final establishment of the national developmental strategy system based on the above external technology foresight research. Although in now , the academe not yet explicitly propose "external technology foresight", but the development of technology foresight until now both in theory and in practice altogether repeatedly indicated that,this formulation is absolutely not a surface understanding about technology foresight concept as well as not a simple division to the technology foresight type, but is benefit from profound reconsidering to the essence of technology foresight and the questions of the human development. External technology foresight is the expansion and extension from technology foresight, is embodiment and emphasis on external special characteristic of technology foresight. So-called "external technology foresight",which is from the technological and the social relation angle, bases in the various possible social effects during the process of technological development, through systemic research on the whole development of technology, economy and the society in the long future time, determines strategic research area, and will choose those general technologies which have the maximized contribution to sustainable development of the society and then human's integrated development. Its connotation is to show the social attribute of the technology, attention technological social role as well as the solution to the bidirectional dynamic adaption mechanism question between technology and the society. Its philosophy foundation is scientific development outlook, its core is to realize human's overalldevelopment. The Marxist philosophy is the first level methodology; Certain theories and method in the natural sciences and social sciences is the second level methodology,which locate mid level; The third level is the concrete technical method which we use in the external technology foresight practice process, mainly on a base of revision to the existing technology foresight methods,tries to find out effective method. Certainly, if we cannot promptly solve many problems which the external technology foresight faces, then it will lose the development turning point, and will become the theory level prediction which can only stay in "the paper can come up the end sense to be shallow". To unify the external technology foresight and the selection of national science & technology development strategy, we must clarify and solve a series of questions. The total goal of our national external technology foresight is, to seek safe and highly effective technological development way, to the full extent of evading the social development risk which the technical negative effect brings, and form scientific democratic macroscopic management decision-making system gradually; Using this pattern to establish national science & technology development strategy, we must form external technology foresight multilayer system including national, the departments and the enterprises as soon as possible in the concrete work link, expand society participates in the degree; Technical basic component factors ,including entity factor, intelligent factor and craft factor etc. are basic integrant part in the national development power system, in addition, innovation,human's quality, knowledge and ecological factors are also the important power factors that influence the social development heavily; From local, national and even the global angle, to carry on the suitable appraisal and the judgment to the science and technology,we must draw support from the external technology foresight to form one kind mechanism to dodge the social development price in the entire society; Moreover the social development value judgment standards should include, ecological environment, system,culture as well as human's overall development three aspects criteria; On this foundation, to unify five grand strategy thoughts, the paper proposes the selection of our country'sscience & technology development strategies. The realistic foundation in which our country implements human resource development strategy, is "quantity is big, quality is low, burden is heavy". To the persons who is said to both control technology and also undertake its restriction, how to display the positive role of science and technology in the greatest degree, and refrain from its negative influence, becomes one of most vital duties now. To Introduce the external technology foresight decision-making pattern in the human resource development strategy, on the one hand, provides the objective judgment basis for the specialized direction, the number and the structure of the talent train and so on; On the other hand, strengthens the consciousness of external technology foresight, to provide the support truly for doing the long-term external technology foresight work in the entire society. This will be a long-term dynamic change process,so that the human resource strategy registers inevitably as the manpower continual readjustment and flow. To implement this strategy, we have to grasp firmly three grand strategy goals : "a dozen billion people", "overall development", "the strategic transformation of great nation to powerful nation ". Its strategic priority should locate in the countryside, the manpower investment, the education system construction and the education idea transformation. Its comprehensive systematic project pattern includes entire process structure pattern, quality structure pattern and ecological environment structure pattern. The knowledge development strategy takes people as the dominant factor, and takes the knowledge as the foundation. To implement the sustained knowledge development strategy of "promoting social all-round development, having our eyes on the future",we obviously can't be constrained by developping technology itself,but should construct the frame system of knowledge development strategy from the external technology foresight pattern's angle of view. The knowledge development strategy based on the selection of critical technology, that is under the guidance of external technology foresight thinking, foresights various factors which influence technological development as well as various influence resulted from technological development, to make selective development of the keyVIII domain,the critical technology and the general technology capable of bringing the maximized contribution; The knowledge development strategy based on the industry cluster,that is a cluster style strategy on the basis of external technology foresight decision-making pattern that lays special emphasis on the consideration to the relation between technology and society; The knowledge development strategy based on the innovation system research, that is to build suitable environment and then guide the process of knowledge innovation to be ordered. In fact, to implement knowledge development strategies based on the selection of critical technology and industry cluster, all must take the knowledge innovation as the foundation, all must be based on the innovation system research. To discuss the government reform strategy,this paper will have the aid of the PSR conceptual model, draw the external technology foresight decision-making pattern into this model, and launch P, S, R three angles feedback and exchange by the external technology foresight. The governments stand in the commanding point of social economy development all over the world, it cannot deviate from the technical control in a moment ,therefore on the side of the stipulations of the ordinary and special standards in the policy assessment and the policy management, they must increase the consideration of the technology foresight, promptly make the achievements of the technology foresight bring into play through the improved ways of policy assessment and policy management. Government administration ideas in the new century also should include to construct the external technology foresight style government diligently,namely ask governments to take the foresight as the central subject under discussion,manage today from tomorrow, enable the governments to have the motive and the ability to pay colse attention to the future, and invest in the future. The globalization strategy namely from the international market analysis angle, actively propels the external technology foresight pattern globalized, causes the people all over the world reach agreement beneficial to social sustained development as soon as possible in the external technology foresight participation process, thus strives for the biggest global benefit and much more development. Inorder to realize pluralistic globalization strategy choice to the countries in the world, we must foresight the future development correctly,especially on the basis of technology developmental safety, to form a stratified cooperative interchange system of external technology foresight, and seek exchange and cooperation between nations in the entire world scope, so as to realize the biggest possible gain while the whole world win together. For this reason, we must still consider to solve all kinds of possible international conflict through the legal protection research. 2005 Nobel prizewinner Thomas Schelling once to say that, "If you want to study some theory or develop some concept, if you think this theory or the concept will promote the people's understanding to the real world, then please invent some plain concepts." As a result of such faith, the author urges myself on continuously during the research process. However, "the rational ray and the dark expansion has the direct ratio,knowledge extension carries on with ignorant expansion in step with",to apply the external technology foresight pattern in the science & technology developmental strategy decision-making,we still obviously have many questions easy to read and understand, which are convenient for the operation, to need further discussion.