Research Of Technology Foresight And National Critical Technological Innovation Model

In today's world, high technologies such as information, biotechnology, new materials and energy, etc. as well as corresponding industries are undergoing rapid development; the cross converging and the integration of science and technologies will lead to major innovations and breakthroughs; technologies, especially strategic high technologies are becoming the decisive strength for economic and social development. Confronted with new opportunities and challenges, many countries such as USA, Japan, UK, Germany and Korea, etc. pursue the research of technology foresight and national critical technology selection, explore the direction of science and technology in the future and make sure the priority in national development from the needs of native economy and society so as to provide the basis for the establishment of technological development strategies and policies, and the future technological information for industries and social public.The next 20 years is an important period of strategic opportunity not only for the economic and social development of our country, but also for the development of technology. Therefore, our pressing task is to study and devise strategies for science and technology development, select critical technologies that are suitable to our national conditions and capable of promoting economic and social development for making breakthroughs, and support and lead all-round and harmonious development and sustainable economic development.This dissertation has taken all the followings into account: technology foresight, national critical technology selection, technology innovation model in our country, and has done tentative researches on the construction of technology foresight methods model, the national critical technology selection model and the theory and method of the innovation model.This dissertation is composed of 6 chapters. Chapter one focuses on the introduction of the research background and the purport of the dissertation, and constructs the dissertation' framework, the hypotheses and the core innovation.Chapter two focuses on a summary of technology foresight and technology innovation theory based on the related oversea research results, the introduction of technology foresight, national critical technology selection, technology innovation and the method of analyzing and evaluating the technology, and the research of correlation each other.Chapter three focuses on mainly the study of technology foresight theory and method. Technology foresight theory and method include five parts of Bibliometrics analysis, Study on social and economic needs, Delphi analysis, Scenario analysis and Technology Monitoring. Firstly the chapter introduces how to identify rapidly developing research areas by bibliometrics analysis, Main objective of this study is to help foresight experts to know well research fronts, especially basic research; secondly the chapter relates to Study on Social and Economic Needs, there is established method of collecting information on socio-economic needs, linking them with specific areas of science and technology, and assessing the potential contribution of science and technology to realizing these needs; Thirdly the chapter related to Delphi survey, aimed to determine research fields that are of strategic importance, and select critical technology clusters that can make greater contributions to economic and social development; Fourthly the chapter related to Scenario Analysis in important scientific and technological fields, Scenario Analysis is a complementary study to the Delphi analysis, to make a target of consensus among experts through forecasting the future progressive scenarios. Fifthly the chapter related to Technology monitoring, aimed to monitor the disruptive technology dynamically so as to help technology managers identify and grasp Technology Opportunities. The five methods work cooperatively to finish technology foresight practice.Chapter four focuses on the selection method and model of the national critical technology in our country. With the method of analyzing and evaluating the technology, I construct the model for selecting national critical technology. The model has taken into account the national critical technology factors and market demand factors to do thorough analysis. Then according to the model of selecting critical technology, I did the general analysis and assessment of the critical technology based on technology foresight result in our country and got critical technology clusters. Through the contrasting, I found this model possesses preferably coherence and superiority compared with past national critical technology selection.Chapter five focuses on the theory and method of the innovation mode of the national critical technology selection. Due to national critical technological characteristics, the conclusion based on the national critical technology innovation path in this study is different from general technology innovation path. Besides, this paper adopts the real option method, the serial investment decision-making theory to create the model of innovation model selection based on income approach of the national critical technology. Then I chose the concrete national critical technology and did the practical test and analysis according to the model.Chapter six makes a conclusion of the study progress besides indicating the promising research fields.