Forecast Study Of Logistics Demand In Dali

The logistics industry is the secondary industry of social and economic development. The demand of economic development promotes the development of the logistics industry; conversely, the logistics industry provides a strong support to the development of economy and society. It can be said, levels of a regional logistics industry development and the service to a certain extent reflect levels of the region’s economic development and social management. In recent years, with the development of regional economy, with the Yunnan provincial government to build Dali into the center city of western Yunnan, the development of logistics industry is accelerating, and it becomes to be one of the important industrial of government’s planning in Dali; at the same time, it will be a key and new economic growth point to the development of Dali in future. In order to avoid waste resources, the development of logistics industry should maintain a high degree of coordination with the development of the economy. So, planning and designing the development of logistics industry in Dali, it should be first analyze and predict the demand of logistics in Dali; then, according to the forecast results, rational plan the development of logistics industry.As to analysis and forecast of Dali logistics, the status of Dali economic and social development and the Dali logistics industry development were studied firstly. According to the economic and logistics industry data in Dali in the year 2005 to 2014, the logical relationship between economic development and material flow was analyzed. The result showed that the data of economic and social development in Dali can be used to predict the development trend of its logistics flow. Based on the logistics industry statistical data over the past 10 years, three indexes viz. the transport industry output value (the unified definition for the logistics output), freight volume and freight turnover volume were selected to represent the logistics demand in Dali. After determination the prediction index system of Dali logistics, using grey system theory to analysis the correlation between economic factors and logistics demand, then determine the economic indicators for prediction logistics demand.In forecasting analysis, two exponential smoothing, regression analyses, and gray system forecast method were used to establish four prediction models. Meanwhile, using the regression forecasting method, the degree of development of logistics demand in Dali in the next 5 years (2015-2019 years) was predicted based on the determination economic indexes. The results showed that Dali logistics demand was in keeping with the overall trend of economic and social development.In this study, the logistics demand of Dali in the next 5 years (2015-2019 years) was forecasted. The results can provide some references to plan the local logistics industry, and provide some references to investors for their investment decision in logistics industry in Dali. Otherwise, through this study, the economic factors influencing the Dali logistics demand were determinate; it will be of great help to develop the economic and logistics in Dali.