| Recent years, regional logistics is an important part for modern industries. The role of logistics industry is well recognized in national wide. Because of the important role in 3rd industry, logistics becomes one of the key works of government's planning, and the development of logistics is enhanced as a headstream of new economy incensement. After The Outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, regional logistics planning is spread around the country, where rational analysis and precise forecasting are essential issues. One of the critical problems in the face of planner and manager is logistics products demand estimation.This paper establishes a regional logistics demand model which is demonstrated in an empirical study, on the basis of analysis on influencing factors, such as economic factors of regional logistics. Summary is as follows1,The connotations of regional logistics and logistics demand have been redefined to obtain more clear insights of their characteristics; regional logistics demand and supply are analyzed using micro-economic theory. And a discussion is presented about impacts of the supply or demand movement on the market balance.2,The internal mechanism between regional logistics and regional economic is studied:Firstly, seven aspects are discussed with regard to logistics effects on regional economies development. Regional logistics is not only a protection to economic development, but also can optimizes the industrial structure, improve economic efficiency, improves the investment environment, and enhances the quality of the economy. Therefore, the regional logistics plays a significant role in the regional economic development. In turn, the effects of regional economic on the regional logistics development are discussed in a new form. The emphases is focused on, the regional economic impacts on regional logistics development under the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration.At the end, the input-output method is integrated to study the internal links between logistics and economic from two angles of the logistics contributions and influences to the economy. 1) Through analysises on the direct consumption coefficient and its matrix, the complete coefficient consumption and its matrix, we can see intuitively the links between logistics industry and the various departments, the influences on departments' developments, leadship to national economy, effects on national economy and so on. After the establishment of logistics direct economy contribution model, the direct economical contribution of every ten thousand Yuan investments in every departments are calculated.2) The influence of the industrial department as well as the entire national economy on logistics are explained in special details, through studies on the various industrial Department final demand to grow the influence which delivers to the logistics.3,A general function format of logistics demand is established based on analysis of impacts of economic on logistics. And a novel indices system of regional logistics demand is established, the grey theory was used to analyze the relevance between regional logistics and its major economic influence factor. Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example, where the interrelatedness is obtained.4,Using the co-integration theory in the metrology econometrics, analysis on effects between regional logistics on regional economies development is conducted respectively and quantitatively.1) In the view of quantitative analysis on effects of regional economies on regional logistics, Shanghai and Sichuan are taken as an example with indices of logarithm value of Sichuan's cargo volume of the circular flow. Relational model between the economy and the logistics grows is established using cooperation theory.2) In the view of quantitative analysis of effects of regional logistics on regional economies, economic growth rate is described by logarithm value of Sichuan GDP with indices describing increment rate of logistics which are composed of logarithm value of cargo volume of the circular flow, logarithm value of capital investment in transportation, warehousing and the posts and telecommunications communication industry, and the logarithm value of staff population in the transportation, warehousing postal service. Relational model between the Sichuan logistics and the Sichuan economic growth is established using cooperation theory, which has made a quite good progress. 5,From influencing factors' angle, the forecast model is established based on the structure risk minimum criterion SVR method, which is applied on a empirical forecasting of the regional logistics demand. More ideal results can be obtained through ANN method, and the regression analysis method, in view of relevant question between numerous factors that affects regional logistics demand, principal components analysis method is introduced which makes a better progress.6,In view of limitations of conventional approaches and time sequence forecast method by artificial neural networks, region distribution demand is forecasted using standard SVR method, from time series' angle. Better results are gained through ANN method and regression analysis method. In view of difference between samples of the regional logistics demand, improved-SVR is introduced whose forecasting result is more ideal than standard SVR method.In the conclusion part, summaries are proposed, such as innovations and insufficiency.
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