Logistics Transportation Demand Prediction In Hunan Province

Forestry industry is an important part of the national economy. Hunan has abundant forest resource and superior natural physical conditions, which make Hunan become a big province of forest products production, processing, consumption and import and export of forest products. Hunan forest industry is in transition from traditional forestry industry to modern forestry industry period. Forest products raw-materials backyard have regional difference with production place and consumption place, there are mismatches between the forest resource distribution and consumption allocation. Forest products transportation has become the important lever of adjusting the balance of supply and demand. In the key period of Hunan forestry’s transition, forest products demand will maintain rapid growth. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen forest products transportation demand forecast research, and ensure Hunan forest products’ supply and demand balance. Forecast research is conducive to promoting the smooth operation of transport system and promoting the healthy development of forestry.This thesis based the research on forestry product logistics home and abroad research status and logistic requirement forecast and relevant theoretical knowledge to study the forest products logistics demand forecasting in Hunan province. First this thesis analyzes the present situation of Hunan forest products logistics development, including two aspects of forest products development status and transportation infrastructure status. The thesis puts forward forest products transportation demand’s influence factors from the aspects of production, consumption, market, transport mode and policy. Determine the total output value of forest products, the consumption level of residents, total investment of forestry fixed assets, railway mileage, highway mileage, etc. for the quantitative indexes of forest products transportation demand. Combined with the historical data of Hunan, take advantage of software SPSS to analyze quantitative indexes’ correlation, and build the index system. Then, the Grey Neural Network is used to construct the forecast model of forest products transportation demand. Carries on the empirical analysis to the Hunan forest products transportation demand forecast, making use of data from 2001 to 2013 to carry on the modeling and the inspection, and forecasts the next three years Hunan forest products logistics transportation demand. The traditional forecasting method and the gray neural network forecast data value are compared and analyzed, and the Grey Neural Network’s superiority and the accuracy are proved. Finally, make suggestions for the future development of Hunan’s forestry products logistics from several aspects of policy guidance, information standardization, resource conformity and industrial cluster.This thesis combined with the Grey Forecast Model and Neural Network Model, then establish the Grey Neural Network Model to forecast the transportation demand, which can provide theoretical basis for forest products transport system planning in the near future of Hunan, meanwhile it also can provide some reference for the development of forestry products logistics in other areas in china.