Assessment Measurement Study For Large Sudden Crisis Influence On Regional Tourism

The sudden crisis event(crisis emergency), in whatever form it occurs, that creates a shock to the tourism industry resulting in the sudden emergence of an adverse situation, events usually arrive in the form of disasters, whatever both human and natural in origin. Tourism industry is influenced by a variety of factors, for example development level of social development, economic level, tourist psychology, residents’ consumption structure,traffic accessibility and so on. Big crisis emergencies tend to cause significant impact to the local tourism, through the indicators of tourism industry development carries on the empirical research can be found that the impact mechanism and the corresponding characteristics. Crisis emergency happen in Sichuan province is relatively frequently, especially the local large natural disasters had caused enormous damage to the local people life and property, physiological psychology, aspects of social economy. Based in Sichuan’s wenchuan 5.12 Earthquake in 2008 as an example to assess the influence of 5.12 Earthquake on Provincial tourism.At the same time the paper use Aba Tibetan and qiang autonomous prefecture jiuzhaigou tourist areas for the specific case to illustrate and test change characteristics of the tourism industry in Sichuan province. Evaluation measure the Jiuzhaigou scenic spot of tourists perception accessibility and tourist group distribution characteristics before and after the change affected by 5.12 earthquake.,in order to show the influence characteristics of Sichuan province.In this paper, evaluation of measurement method by adopting the combination of macro and micro perspective:Macro Perspective(Provincial range) study:Based on 12 data reflect tourism development indicators in the period from January 2006 to December 2012 in Sichuan Province, we use principal component loads to get the scores of tourism development, combined the K-means clustering with chart method to analysis the tourism development from macroscopic view; At the same time we use the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation to analysis Macroscopic changes rule of the tourism indicators. Microcosmic perspective (Specific cases) study:The Jiuzhaigou scenic area in Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture of tourism development on the number of inbound tourists, the number of domestic tourism tourist, foreign exchange income and related aspects to compare with Sichuan tourism, test its rules fits the development rule of tourism industry in Sichuan province.Based on the two Jiuzhaigou scenic spot field questionnaire survey in 2008 and 2011 before and after the "5.12" earthquake, choose tourist group of 2008 and 2011 as two independent sample group, use independent sample T test, combined with perception accessibility measurement model to analysis with two points of view from the group between groups of the sudden crisis event on the influence of perception accessibility for tourists. Meanwhile, analysis 2008 and 2011 in different periods of Jiuzhaigou scenic spot tourism group distribution changes in comparative study.The results show that:5.12 earthquake impact on the tourism industry in Sichuan province’s assessment of the measurement can be from the perspective of macro and micro perspectives.①Big crisis emergency evaluation measure the impact of tourism development in Sichuan province can use two aspects of international tourism and domestic tourism to measure indicators change. In terms of international tourism affected obviously by the crisis emergency negative 5.12 earthquake in Sichuan province; Sichuan province in terms of domestic tourism less affected by the crisis emergency negative 5.12 earthquake, its development with rigidness characteristics, restore faster; And international tourism crisis emergency response is sensitive, affected by negative significantly, volatile, tourism is likely to be at home and abroad tourist market of information asymmetry differences; ②5.12 earthquake impact on international tourism:Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture and tourism development trends compared with Sichuan exist obviously difference before and after the earthquake, before the earthquake the Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture, Sichuan province’s international tourism development is the basic and consistent with international tourism development, but the earthquake trend both inconsistent; No matter domestic travel before and after the 5.12 earthquake, its development trend and the overall development trend of Sichuan province is large; ③Long-distance travel is a kind of high level of feeling, at least the premise to ensure the safety of their life. Potential tourists who want to travel Jiuzhaigou scenic spots exist the psychology of worry and fear that tourist crisis emergencies happen along the way, before the 5.12 earthquake in Sichuan province, tourists mainly worried about the " safety " factor, after 5.12 earthquake, mainly is worried about the " traffic flow " factor;④Before and after the 5.12earthquake, Jiuzaigou scenic area have a significant proportion of tourists from other provinces and the tourists around the province changes:before the earthquake, visitors have long distance from other provinces is a major part customers for Jiuzhaigou scenic area, the proportion is as high as 69.78%, and the proportion of the province and neighboring provinces tourism market is as low as 30.22%; After earthquake, long-distance provincial tourists accounted for 58.47%, and the percentage of the province and neighboring provinces is 41.53%, its proportion increased significantly, especially in Sichuan province customers proportion increase.At the same time, before and after the earthquake, "tourists source pole" show different changes distribution of booms and busts.