Research Of Flight Delay Level Based On Statistical Analysis

Flight delay has received a lot of passengers’ complaints in the recent years, and the aviation industry development has been seriously affected, it’s urgent to improve this situation. Flight on-time rate is not only an important factor which could evaluate airline’s performance, but also a key factor of judging the whole aviation industry efficiency. On the account of the problems, such as increasing flights, shortage of resources, poor coordination operation, are difficult to change in short time periods, how to improve on-time rate to reduce the effects of flight delay is paid more attention by airlines, airports and ATC. At present, the researches about flight delay are mainly about the qualitative analysis of delay cause and how to restore operation after occurs irregular. Quantitative analysis study of persistent delay time only focus on ground service instead of the whole operation, in addition, there is no scientific and reasonable flight delay grading standard, so the evaluation of delay level is vague.In the background of a large hub airport in domestic, firstly, utilized multivariate statistical analysis method to explore the distribution regularity of flight delay. Secondly, introduced the delay mechanism in detail and analyzed the delay factors effectively, then built the COX proportional hazards model of persistent flight delay time in order to investigate the significant factors and the relationship of elements. Finally, built a flight delay level classification strategy using several clustering algorithms from the degree of delay perspective, and created a set of delay level criterion both satisfying actual demand and relatively completeness. The criterion covers the shortage of the current flight delay level standard which difficult to reflect delay degree fully. It could offer auxiliary decision-making basis for mangers and improve related management department operated efficiency. It also has an important reference value for airports and airlines.