Study On Prosperity Of Real Estate And The Dynamic Relationship Between Prosperity Of Real Estate And Economic Growth In New Era

Chinese current prosperity index system of real estate has been significantly outdated, inaccurate problem exists on the real estate industry development in the new period of the analysis and prediction; the lack of direct and effective quantitative analysis of the relationship between the real estate industry, the economy and economic growth situation. In this paper, the new period 2008-2014 of the actual situation in the real estate industry, the preparation of a new real estate industry overall sentiment index, and the establishment of early warning systems and autoregressive moving average prediction model(ARIMA), the new era of China’s real estate industry boom conditions analyzed and forecast. From the index "Keqiang index" point of the real estate industry and the newly integrated economy, the establishment of vector autoregression model(VAR) and error correction model(VEC) analysis of the real estate industry, the economy and economic growth in the dynamic state of the relationship.Determined in accordance with "national housing index" index principle,choose to invest in real estate development, real estate investment sources of capital,land acquisition area real estate, real estate, land transaction price, real estate,construction area of new construction, completion of the area of real estate, real estate sales and real estate sales 8 indicators, the newly established "National Housing Index System. By year cumulative index normalized method, and using X-11 seasonal adjustment process, the distribution of heavy weight of each index by factor analysis, and then combined with the new economic cycle in accordance with the principles of economy Investment in real estate development period, determined in June 2008 as the base period, with the completion of the preparation of synthesis of new real estate industry overall climate index, according to New "national housing index", the use of mathematical statistics method to establish early warning systems for 2008 to boom conditions in the real estate industry in 2014 were analyzed. Modeling, forecasting January 2015 to May national real estate industry stable condition at a little sluggish.New real estate industry for a comprehensive climate index and freight and electricity three variable VAR model, validated the model for a stable VAR(2) model;through cointegration indicates composite sentiment index and cargo and the real estate industry has a generating capacity of at least one co- whole relationship,according to the co-integration equation, discovered the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between real estate industry overall climate index and cargo and power generation; on three variables Granger causality test, inspection found that the real estate industry overall climate index and cargo and power generation amounts are bidirectional causality; by the impulse response and variance analysis showed that the impact of changes in the amount of cargo and generating a comprehensive climate index for the real estate industry has a certain role in boosting the real estate industry overall sentiment index variance is mainly explained by the interior, with the the lag increases, the variance contribution rate of cargo and generating capacity of the real estate industry overall sentiment index gradually increased. Finally, the model, was found to have short-term fluctuations in the adjustment mechanism between the real estate industry overall climate index and freight and electricity.