Research On Intervention Model Of Enterprise Prosperity Index

Enterprise prosperity index can scientifically reflect the current enterprises running situation and estimate the future economic development trend. It can find out and predict (short-term) macroeconomic operation quickly and reliably. It is an effective means of tracking economic cyclical fluctuations, revealing the economic turning point and establishing economic forecast system. At present, enterprise prosperity index has become one of the important methods for monitoring macroeconomic development trend and the enterprises running situation. So the research of enterprise prosperity index has an important significance.In this paper, we have been studied enterprise prosperity index from the perspective of time series analysis. First, the series enterprise prosperity index has been processed. Then, a reasonable intervention model is established in order to predict enterprise prosperity index. According to the forecast results we determine the development of economy condition. Finally, we build the relation model between enterprise prosperity index and GDP quarterly accumulative total growth rate. Through this model, we can use enterprise prosperity index to predict the GDP quarterly accumulative total growth rate for short-term forecasting and then we can estimate the development situation of the economy from the aspects of GDP.The main content and conclusions of this research are as follows:1. As a time series, the enterprise prosperity index series can be studied using time series analysis method. In this example, only one intervention events (financial crisis) has an effect on enterprise prosperity index. Under this kind of circumstance, we establish a suitable univariate intervention model and use this model to forecast Enterprise prosperity index. Through the verification, the prediction is accurate.2. According to forecasting results of Enterprise prosperity index, we learn that in normal circumstances the short-term economy appears a steady speed development vision. Government departments can use them as decision-making basis to make out macroeconomic policies. The management of the enterprise managers can also use them as an important reference to make out enterprise development strategies and business plans.3. Using the enterprise prosperity index, we can set unitary linear regression model to predict GDP quarterly cumulative total growth rate for short-term forecasting. The credibility of forecasting results is quite high.4. The forecasting results of GDP quarterly cumulative total growth rate shows that in normal circumstances the short-term economy appears a faster momentum. We can also infer that in 2011 the annual growth in GDP will be more than 8 percent in setting goals.