The Impact Research Macro-economic Indicators On Real Estate Index Of China

Various industry indexes exist in the stock market. Every industry index reflects the development of industry. Real estate index can reflect the development of the real estate market. As we all know, macroeconomic situation has an important influence on stock market. Indicators reflect economic situation. It does make sence to research the impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index. Firstly, it can reveal the disciplinarian between macroeconomic and real estate index. Secondly, it can provide basis and reference in terms of economy.The main work of this paper: This paper chooses35macroeconomic indicators. First, this paper deletes21indicators by multiple collinear tests. Then,14indicators are remained. Second,5indicators are remained by forward selecting variables. They are gold reserve, interbank offered rate, growth rate of GDP, the growth rates of gross output value of industry, lone interest rate of financial institution. Those indicators do not include repeating information and have significant impact on real estate index. Third, it carries on unit root stationary test and co-integration test. The result shows that there is a long run co-integration relationship between indicators and real estate index. Finally, the impact models are constructed including ordinary linear regression model and an error correction model.In this paper, the special and constructions are as follows. Firstly, there is the scientific selection before model’s construction. The result is that indicators do not include repeating information and have significant impact on real estate index. In this paper, two models are constructed. The error correction model reflects the short-time impact and the ordinary linear regression model reflect the long-time impact. Finally, view of research is the impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index which was not researched before.