Analysis Of Chinese Real Estate Market Trend Based On Real Estate Climate Index

In the past twenty years, the real estate industry grew so rapidly that the real estate enterprise, the amount of investment and the demand and supply also soared. But the speed of expansion was rising some questions, especially the real estate market were faced with a fall in prices and transaction by the housing downtown in recent two years. Either government or developers or residents are very concerned about whether the future real estate market is stable. It is very important to know the development trend of future real estate and turning point on the whole.But influencing factors of real estate development are intricate and complex. Usually mainstream model is about single factor real estate price index and insensitive to inflection point because of the change of policy element and macro-environment. This paper analysis some theories and current state of the real estate market,then chose the latest monthly real estate climate index from January 1998 to December 2014 as the study to build ARIMA model and GM(1,1) power model based on time series model and grey forecasting model. We discovered the real estate market is still in the doldrums but pressure seemed to be easing. In order to consider real estate market cycle,we built STR model to identify running point of real estate market by transition variable and recognized the history turning point successfully.Found China real estate market mechanism transformation occurred in the 3 period lag and 0.6117 was the critical point of expansion and contraction. Moreover the influence mechanism of external GDP growth rate had the pulling effect in the half past a year’s lag. We can identify cycle turning point in advance.At last we do some analysis and suggestions for government, real estate business and buyers based on short-term prediction result and turning point.