Research On Development Of Tourism Industry In Laos

Laos is a world famous tourist country, the scenery pleasant, each year attracts a large number of tourists at home and abroad, since 2005 after entry the million mark milestone, Laos tourism development for a new peak, to reach 3.876 million people,2013 Laos foreign travel overseas tourism revenues as a share of GDP is as high as 4.87%. At present, the tourism industry has developed into the Lao economic pillar industries. According to current situation of Laos tourism, this article launches the research from the following three aspects.First, the Laos foreign tourist population forecast. According to the immigration of 2002-2013, based on the gray system theory and method, using conventional grey forecasting model GM (1,1) model and grey metabolism GM (1,1) model has carried on the short-term earthquake prediction, to overseas tourist population prediction results show that:(1) the grey metabolism GM (1, 1) model in the prediction process in a timely and effective integration of new information, get rid of stale over time and information, reduce the interference of the model, than conventional GM (1,1) model is more close to actual. (2) in the middle of the travel outside the territory of Laos population projections, the grey metabolism GM (1,1) model precision, better prediction results show that the Laos will travel overseas population from 2014 in 4.65709 million, rose to 12669.42 in 2020, the average annual growth rate as high as 9%.Second, the Lao economic growth and the relationship analysis of tourism industry. First of all, from Laos foreign tourist income, tourism resources, tourists abroad distribution, transportation, tourism policy and so on, analyze the Laos tourism present situation; Second, using vector autoregressive model, the Lao economic growth and the relationship between tourism and research, research has shown that Laos exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and tourism, economic growth DLNGDP is a one-way granger cause of DLNTR impact tourism income increase, the economy of tourism income elasticity was 1.546 for a long time; Impulse response function shows that economic development and long-term close relationship between tourism development and tourism development in the starting period has a weak effect on economic development, but in the long run, economic development has a stable positive role in promoting development of tourism; Variance decomposition results show that gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations by itself and the impact of tourism waves is relatively stable, and given priority to with their volatility, always in more than 58%; Tourism income volatility is mainly influenced by itself, more than 84.2%, is affected by fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP) is smaller.Third, Luang Prabang tourist satisfaction analysis. This study on tourists’s family background, social attribute, economic situation, the way to travel, travel motivation factors, combining with the characteristics of luang prabang scenic spot design the satisfaction of basic situation questionnaire and questionnaire, the statistical results of the survey data show that:first, has a higher percentage of women in luang prabang tourists, accounts for young people is larger, the characteristics of higher education; Way to travel and tourism purposes mainly in travel and tourism; Visitors to the requirements of the six major tourism elements, the local cuisine, private residence and ordinary hotels, bus, famous natural wind and special local product or local folk arts and crafts have larger demand, average daily consumption is given priority to with 30-＄50,64.59% of visitors choose to stay for 2 or 3 nights, to post cuny’s most tourism is the regular customer. Second, from the point of tourist satisfaction and loyalty, luang prabang have the widespread popularity of the visitors, and visitors have certain loyalty, luang prabang province have the possibility of further development of tourism. Finally, the paper puts forward Suggestions and measures of developing tourism in Laos.