Research Of Investment Decision Methods About Pharmaceutical Company R&D Project Based On NPV-ROV

Firstly, the net present value of project investment decision process (Net Present Value, the paper referred to as NPV), and real options (Real Options Value, the paper referred to as ROV) were introduced. NPV analysis of project investment decision method is the most basic method, but does not take into account future opportunities may also be profitable, easy to underestimate the intrinsic value of the project. The introduction of ROV can make up for this deficiency. ROV law pointed out that the management flexibility and uncertainty about the future can add value to the project, the more uncertainty will likely have a higher value. However ROV does not apply to mature the project investment decision analysis, because the project’s maturity is mature and stable environment, project cash flows accurately predicted in the early decision can be, and NPV methods may be more effective.Due to the lack of a good criteria to judge the maturity of a project, and most of the mature investment projects are not absolute or absolutely immature, but gray in between, so it is hard to select one of the NPV or ROV project investment decision analysis method to accurately. Based on the research and development of pharmaceutical enterprises (Research&Development, the paper referred to as R&D) as the object of study of the project, NPV in conjunction with ROV method, the method is a decision analysis process, but also a framework of thinking, it is also applicable for mature and immature projects. In model construction based on NPV-ROV, through D-CAPM in the capital asset pricing model to improve the systematic risk measure beta, and then fold the rate improved to obtain a more accurate NPV, the ROV of the Black-Scholes model is used to calculate the project, and then add them together.Further, this article will be three methods should be used to benefit Nigeria temozolomide in project-specific analysis, NPV-ROV to some extent overcome the disadvantages of NPV and ROV method and the rational use of the advantages of both. Case study NPV method yield the value of the project results is-1470.65million, project was severely undervalued; ROV method using binary tree model analyses the result value of the project is2692.3million Yuan, but the process is very complicated and the results are not accurate; NPV-ROV method yield the result value of the project is44321.05million Yuan, calculations are relatively simple and a reasonable estimate of the value of projects. Determined to promote the application of NPV-ROV model in this paper, according to the true value of the project results to provide a reference for policy makers to make decisions, so NPV-ROV thoughts on project investment decision has certain significance.