The Research Of Financial Early-warning In Chinese Listed Companies

The listed company is the foundation of Chinese securities market, and its quality is closely related with the stability and development of the market. But, due to bad management and other reasons, financial crisis has already occurred in many listed companies. These companies cannot work normally, some of which almost go into bankruptcy. In order to forecast the probability and seriousness of a company's financial crisis and take corresponding measures to avoid losses, it is necessary to establish an efficient financial crisis early-warning system.At the same time, it is also valued by Chinese scholars.This thesis introduces the concept, theory and research methods on financial early-warning, reviews the classical articals about early-warning.As EVA is concerned with stock price, then it introduces the concept, background, previous domestic and abroad study on EVA. I try to use EVA in financial early-warning, and contest EVA's effctive.The thesis, using the empirical study method and the statistical selects 94 samples in listed companies of our country, I choose 30 financial indexes according to our country's facet, then I use statistical analysis method, establish the logistic regression model for the listed companies of our country. The establishment of two models is based on the financial data of the samples. The analysis result indicates that the logistic regression model has the higher accuracy. Then, the thesis chooses 34 quoted companies as testing samples to the accuracy of the logistic regression model. The test result of the logistic regression model is satisfactory. The final research result indicates that the logistic regression model has the high accuracy, and it can be applied to forecast the financial crisis of the enterprises of our country. At last, I find that EVA can be used effectively in the study on financial early-warning.