The Research On The Prediction Model Of Financial Troubles Based On Financial And Non-financial Indexes

With the quick development of stock market in our country,the number of listed company has increased ,market scale also has been found enlarged.This has become a major force which promotes growth in national economy and has monumental contributions to national economy. In spite of this,it is obvious that there remains a trend in the polarization of listed company's performance and it shows a trend of further expansion. More and more company has got into financial trouble,as a result,more and more investors and managers are aware that it is emergent to build a quick financial trouble forecast system to avoid investment risk. Listed company's financial trouble forecast is a key concern to the investors ,managers and supervision institutions.The financial trouble of listed company doesn't occur suddenly,but a gradual process. So it is possible for us to take effective measures to avoid that. This test is based on the overall study of present situation of domestic and foreign listed company's finantional trouble and existing achievements in this field. It marked by the symbol"out going warning"which means whether it or not has got into financial trouble . It gathers variable in all directions including the listed company's management by means of gene analysis and logistic regression analysis .Through such way ,we will seek for accurate variable which can predict listed company's financial trouble and thus set financial trouble forecast model to adapt to the situation of our country .This text tests 117 financial trouble company and 117 non-financial ones (Such companies has been dealt with specially from 2003 to 2005).The result shows the model can forecast the possible financial trouble in following three years.The final result shows its correctness rate has reached to 91.4%,83.7%,75.1%. It can be concluded that the model can do well in demonstration ,and can be practical in practical application.