Research On The Service Diffusion Model Of Mobile Market

Mobile telecommunication industry is suffering from the impact of mobile Internet’s tide; the basic business model has been a huge challenge. To avoid becoming the fate of "pipe", Operators urgently need strategic transformation in aspects of business and operation to drive telecommunications industry further flourish. China Mobile with the aid of mobile market hopes to seize the control of the industry chain. Today mobile application downloads and the demand for new applications are experiencing rapid growth, as a mobile APP, mobile market’s users continuously increase, and with the introduction of new applications it attracts more users, and mobile market’s diffusion regularity is worthy of exploration and research. Therefore, the paper has important theoretical and practical significance on research MM’s diffusion and grasping the law of development, seeking the core influential factors of MM’s diffusion.The purpose of this paper is analyzing the affecting factors of MM business and the contingent diffusion theory, establishing the diffusion model of MM, comparing fitting results of two ideas, and discussing and optimizing model parameters, conducting market segmentation of the whole area, proposing targeted marketing strategy in accordance with MM’s specific development for different areas.In this paper, the main contents include:Firstly, this paper has a thorough understanding on the basic theories on innovation diffusion and S-shaped curve diffusion model, in-depth research on Bass model and its extensions, and ultimately chooses the contingent diffusion model as the base of MM business diffusion.Then, this paper analyzes MM product features, user characteristics and diffusion influential factors; it laid the foundation to build the model in the empirical part. In the empirical research, this paper utilizes the ideas of contingent diffusion model to construct MM diffusion model, and optimizes the lag time.Meanwhile, the previous ways of market segmentation have some limitations, such as subjectivity of the data in acquisition, while innovation coefficient p, imitation coefficient q and N(t)-curve inflection point of time t*in the Bass model, respectively from different angles describe the diffusion pattern of MM in different regions, the research selects these three variables as cluster pattern. According to the estimated variable values of each regional market, this paper divide market categories and for China Mobile provide decision-making support of developing MM business with expertise and differentiation in different market segments. The empirical research shows that, in more economically developed regions including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian etc., MM diffuses quickly, more affected by the mass media, In these areas market penetration strategy should be the main consideration; in the less developed Northwest regions, MM achieve diffusion relied on internal factors, such as word of mouth way, diffusion is relatively slow, but the market potential is huge in these areas, they are the focus of market development to effectively improve market shares.