The Diffusion Of Mobile Communication Product In China Based On Generational Diffusion Model

From 1987 when 1G was launched to 2009 when 3G was officially accepted, China's mobile network and application has experienced a shift of analog to digital, including three generation which are so-called 1G,2G, and 3G Although there are numerous researchers exploring the diffusion of mature and complete 2G through many facets in China, academic researches of diffusion of the third generation of mobile technology seen as a whole are still almost blank.This thesis is to use single generation of Bass model and BB multiple generation model to research of 1G's,2G's, and 3G's diffusion pattern and future development based on development of mobile technology during last decades in China. It is a deep assessment, conclusion and preview of Chinese mobile industry, meanwhile provides suggestive meanings of legalization of governmental regulation, strategic plan and implementation of services providers, and establishment of customer's consumption attitudes.This paper's findings and creations are:1. This paper is to use single generation of diffusion model to investigate 2G's development pattern domestically and locally, and forecast China's and each regions'eventual market potential and future development of the 2G considering first time of using penetration without simulation of model of absolute users'inputs.2. Multiple generations of BB diffusion model has been used to evaluate China's users of 1Q 2G and 3G. It releases the hypothesis of same coefficients of innovation and imitation among generations in classic model. This paper builds suitable model of China's mobile technology development based on choosing and comparing multiple solutions, and subsequently proposes a forecasting value for the number of using China's 2G and 3G in many years.3. According to the simulation of a new model given by this paper, analysis and conclusive findings of changes of diffusion of mobile technology among generations in China will be revealed. Besides, this paper is to explore reasons of these changes and forecast the eventual market potential, innovation effect, and imitation effect of the 3G's diffusion.4. This paper creatively classifies China's 31 provinces and municipalities as four groups:sensitive group, innovation-based group, strong-imitation group and insensitive group. It proposes the viewpoint as choosing 3G's development paths relies on consumption habits and remaining market potentials in different areas, combing with suggesting a map of 3G's future development.