An Empirical Study Of Migration Value-added Service Contingent Diffusion Based On Contingent Diffusion Model

In recent years, with the development of computers, communications, software, microelectronics, and other technologies, the mobile communications industry takes place with the great changes. The global spread of third-generation mobile communication system not only makes the capacity enhancement of mobile communications network, but also promotes a variety of new value-added services come into being at the same time. With the great wealth of value-added services, it is getting close relationships with people's work, life, entertainment and other necessities. Particularly in recent years, with the cooperation and participation with "Super Girls" and "very 6 +1" and "Beijing 2008 Olympic Games", to a great extent, it promoted the development of mobile value-added services. Therefore, the mobile value-added service has a great potential for market. How can accurately predict the future of mobile value-added business and how to help operators to develop appropriate business strategy has become the most focus of the enterprises.On the brief review and basis of the spread theory, in this article I make a systematic and comprehensive analysis of technical innovation theories and models, which will be the foundation of examples in the following parts. Based on the Bass model, and with the combination of subjects, that is featured by China's contingent of mobile value-added service, with the spread theory based on Peterson, Mahajan and Joel spread theories, and with the theory of putting theory into practice, the article makes the prove research on the mobile add-value services of China's telecom industry. The actual situation of China's mobile value-added operations in the empirical studies, some of the evidence adopted by the authorities released China's mobile phone users from 1990 to 2007, and China's mobile value-added business customers from 2000 to 2007, the choice of three models Bass model, Logistic model and Contingent model were studied, and choose the right estimation, that is, non-linear least squares, the three parameters of the model estimates, as well as the effect of fitting for the future of mobile value-added services market trends .The results were compared and analyzed the attendant contingent of models can better predict the mobile industry. This paper analyzes the factors in the course of the spread of mobile service, the results show that the impact of internal factors, namely the role of word of mouth is greater than the impact of external factors, that is, the spread of the mass media. Finally, empirical analysis based on the results of the operator for the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, the paper alsopointed out that innovative spots and the future prospects for research.