Research On The Capacity Supply And Development Of Crude Oil Tanker Fleet

International oil shipping market is a market with high competition, complicated environment and special risks. At the same time, the world political events, economic fluctuation and natural factors all have an impact on the international oil shipping market, increasing the operating risk of the shipping enterprises. So it is very important to analyze the changes in crude oil shipping market and get the rules of market development, which has important significance to the operation and development of shipping enterprises.In the thesis, based on the summing-up of the researches both at home and abroad, the present situations of world crude oil production, consumption and imported&exported are introduced systematically. The main sea routes of world crude oil shipping are concluded. And the basic conditions of the size, composition, building and dismantling of world crude oil tanker fleet are introduced. The main factors that affect world crude oil shipping are summarized. Besides, this thesis also analyzes the balance of capacity supply and demand of world crude oil tanker fleet.According to the changes of historical data, building the model of capacity supply of world crude oil tanker fleet, and optimizing the model with binary plant growth simulation algorithm, then predicting its future changes with the model. As can be seen from the results, the trigonometric model established in this paper more accurately reflect the variation rules of the capacity supply of world crude oil tanker fleet, which can achieving the overall trend of its development. This paper also builds and optimizes the model of capacity supply of VLCC tanker fleet, predicting its development trend with the model in the next five years. The research can help shipping industry to make reasonable decision on the scale of tanker fleet and reasonable operating strategy.