On The Incidence Relation Between The Extreme Meteorological Factors And Idustrial Power Consumption In Hangzhou City

Hangzhou, a relatively developed city in China, also a city short of energy, relies mainly on the transferred energy to develop the economy. Located in the east china monsoon region, Hangzhou is a region with a high frequency of extreme weather events. And with energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions rapidly increasing, the city is now facing a dual pressure of lacking resources and environmental deterioration for the economic development. Except the influence of economic development, the significant energy consumption in Hangzhou is also closely related to the consumption caused by extreme weather changes.Based on the monthly data of meteorological factors and the industrial electricity consumption with a sample spanning the period2008-2013, this paper analyzed and processed the data of meteorological factors in Hangzhou, respectively. Various periods of meteorological electricity consumption was separated through the electricity consumption decomposition method. This paper tries to explore the relationship between the meteorological factors and electricity consumption of Hangzhou from different angles using different methods. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions were put forward in order to deal with the extreme weather changes and reduce the electricity consumption legitimately, providing a scientific reference for the government to develop energy-saving policies.(1) Co-integration analysis between electricity consumption and meteorological factors: First, unit root test was carried out on the monthly data of the meteorological factors and the electricity consumption time series during2008-2013. Then, co-integration analysis was conducted based on the above test, and corresponding error correction models were built with residual plots depicting the relationship to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of each extreme meteorological catastrophic factor on the industrial electricity consumption in Hangzhou. Finally, Granger causality analysis was carried on to verify the relationship between different time series, to analyze the Granger cause, and to reveal the interaction characteristics of different variables under different periods. This paper proved that extreme meteorological catastrophic factors (extreme precipitation, extreme wind speed, extreme low pressure, extreme low temperature, extreme high temperature and extreme relative humidity) and Hangzhou industrial meteorological electricity consumption do co-integrated.(2) Study on the input-output efficiency between meteorological variables and the electricity consumption:Data envelopment analysis was applied to analyze the basic data of meteorological factors and the industrial electricity consumption in Hangzhou from2008to2013. Decision-making unit model equations were established, in which meteorological factors (daily maximum temperature,20-20precipitation, daily minimum temperature, minimum pressure and minimum relative humidity) are formed as an input variable system and meteorological electricity consumption separated from the industrial electricity consumption are played as output variables. Models are built to easily analyze the efficiency of scope and technology of the extreme meteorological factors on Hangzhou electricity consumption, and to improve the invalid units, so as to investigate the input-output efficiency of meteorological factors on the industrial electricity consumption and to emphasize the comprehensive impact of meteorological resources on the electricity consumption.(3) Research on the relationship between meteorological variables and electricity consumption:In the relationship study of meteorological factors and meteorological electricity consumption, grey correlation analysis can reflect not only the relationship between single meteorological factor and the meteorological electricity consumption, but also the role of each meteorological factor and electricity consumption data in the whole system. This paper conducted a research on the relationship between main meteorological factors and electricity consumption, and explored the specific degree of this impact.