Construction Of Aquatic Product Price Prediction Model Based On Meteorological Factors

With the rapid economic development and the increase of residents' disposable income,the consumption structure has also been continuously upgraded.Residents have paid more attention to dietary health and protein intake,and their consumption demand for aquatic products has increased significantly.In recent years,the price of aquatic products has fluctuated frequently,and the fluctuation of aquatic product prices has affected the decisions of stakeholders such as producers,consumers,and governments.Therefore,accurate aquatic product price prediction is particularly important.Among the many factors that affect the price of aquatic products,meteorological factors affect the production and circulation of aquatic products due to their unpredictable,difficult to control,and destructive characteristics,and have an important impact on the price of aquatic products.Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors such as temperature and rainfall affect the production and transportation of aquatic products,as well as consumer consumption habits.Therefore,studying the correlation between meteorological conditions and aquatic product prices,comparing and analyzing the effects of meteorological conditions on aquatic product price prediction models,is of great significance for improving the accuracy of aquatic product price predictions,and helping governments and farmers to accurately predict future price trends.Among many aquaculture,river crab farming is an important pillar industry in China's fishery production.The freshwater aquaculture production of river crabs in Jiangsu Province ranks first in the country,and Shanghai ranks first in the consumption of river crabs in provinces and cities nationwide.Among them,Wuxi is an importantplace for river crab breeding in Jiangsu Province,128 kilometers away from Shanghai,and is an important source of river crab supply in Shanghai's wholesale market.Therefore,this study takes Wuxi,a city where crabs are cultivated,and Shanghai,a city where sales and distribution are taken as examples.Different weather indicators are selected and Granger causality tests are used to analyze the sensitivity of the price of Shanghai crab wholesale market to meteorological factors in Wuxi.Study the correlation between meteorological conditions in Wuxi and prices of Shanghai crab wholesale market.An ARIMAX model of meteorological factors and river crab prices is established,and the prediction accuracy of the ARIMAX model of meteorological factors and river crab prices is further explained by comparing the prediction results of the ARIMAX model with the prediction results of the Holt-winters model and the ARIMA model.The results of the study are as follows:The Holt-winters model analysis of the crab price time series shows that the crab price has obvious seasonal fluctuation characteristics.The demand for river crabs in Shanghai is large,and the supply of crabs is significantly affected by the breeding cycle,and the risk resistance is insufficient;the peak season for crabs is concentrated in summer and autumn,and the cold winter to early spring is the off-season,and the price fluctuates significantly;The price increase was large,the off-season supply exceeded demand,and the price fell significantly.Granger causality test shows that average temperature and average precipitation are Granger causes of river crab price fluctuations,and average relative humidity and average air pressure are not Granger causes of river crab price fluctuations.It can be seen that changes in the average temperature and precipitation of Wuxi City will cause fluctuations in the price of Shanghai crab wholesale market.The analysis of the sensitivity of river crab prices to the average temperature and precipitation in Wuxi shows that the average precipitation change rate in Wuxi fluctuates greatly and has obvious regularity.The absolute value of the sensitivity coefficient of river crab prices to the average precipitation change in Wuxi is relatively small,and the overall fluctuation is relatively stable.The fluctuation rate of the average temperature of Wuxi City is relatively small,showing a certain periodicity and seasonality.The absolute value of the sensitivity coefficient of river crab prices to changes in average temperature in Wuxi is relatively small,and the overall fluctuation is relatively stable.Thesensitivity coefficient is positive or negative in different months,which indicates that the average temperature and precipitation of Wuxi have a greater impact on the production of river crabs,which in turn has a great impact on the price of river crabs.From the perspective of prediction accuracy,the ARIMAX model of river crab price with the meteorological factor has the highest prediction accuracy,and the ARIMAX model of lnt and lnp fits best.Introducing the ARIMAX model of meteorological factors and river crab prices to predict river crab prices from October to December 2018.The results show that the ARIMAX models of lnt and lnp,lnr and lnp fit well,and the errors in the recent predictions are small,but with the The farther the month is,the larger the error value will be.Based on the results of the forecast for the past 3 months,the actual value is closer to the predicted value,which can better predict the complex change law of the crab price with less error.The ARIMAX model of meteorological factors and river crab prices and Holt-winters and ARIMA models show that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMAX model of meteorological factors and river crab prices is the best,and the actual values are close to the predicted values.The price of river crabs is complex and the error is small.According to the above research results,It can be determined that the ARIMAX model of river crab prices substituted for meteorological factors can improve the accuracy of aquatic product prediction and help governments and farmers to predict future price trends.Government departments should pay attention to climate impact when constructing prediction models;Temperature and rainfall are important meteorological factors that affect the price of river crabs.Therefore,whether it is a river crab producer or seller,it is important to pay attention to the impact of changes in temperature and rainfall on prices;For better price monitoring and forecasting,the government should do a good job of data collection and sorting and share data resources.