Constructing The Model Of Natural Gas Supply And Demand Under The Conditions Of Supply Chain

In recent years, with the rapid growth of economy and the continuousimprovement of living standards in Sichuan and Chongqing region, demand forenergy is increasing, but after some energy use will produce serious environmentdamage product. Moreover,the state vigorously promote implement energy-savingemission reduction policies, therefore, some energy use was limited. Natural gas as akind of high efficient, clean and strategic energy starts to vigorously promote the usein our country, but natural gas supply growth rate is less than the growth rate ofdemand. The gap between supply and demand of natural gas is increasing, and highdependence on foreign, with the economic development of each region contradictionsin Sichuan and Chongqing will become increasingly strained. Therefore, the studyunder the conditions of supply chain demand and supply of natural gas in Sichuan andChongqing, features in the supply chain for natural gas, the gas structure, supply anddemand analysis and forecasting.It is very important and urgent to natural gas marketdevelopment and establishgreen harmonious society.The study’s target is promote the healthy, stable, rapid development of naturalgas market in Sichuan and Chongqing area. This research is based on the theory ofsupply chain management and demand and supply, it is combined with the natural gasMarket. First, the natural gas supply and demand and supply chain have carried on theanalysis at the domestic and foreign present development situation, so understand thedevelopment of this field. The second is to study the development background,characteristics and market of natural gas, including the world natural gas market, thedomestic natural gas market and the Sichuan Chongqing natural gas market. The thirdis to study the effects of supply chain on the natural gas market development,This is mainly of two studies: on the one hand is the impact of supply chain managementaspects of the natural gas supply, on the other hand is the impact of supply chainmanagement for natural gas demand.Finallythe system dynamics was researched bytheoretical, and natural gas’s supply and demand in Sichuan and Chongqing area areresearched and predicted by the system dynamics, sensitivity analysis is carried out bythe main affecting factors for natural gas demand. Changing macro-economic growth,natural gas intensity, a change in the proportion of natural gas in the energy, toanalyze the impact on the demand for natural gas, and to draw definitive conclusions.Make Recommendations on national policy and the future use of the structure ofnatural gas in the future. Following the progress of this research:1) Combined the development history and characteristics of natural gas marketsboth the domestic and abroad. Comprehensive, objective, systematic grasp thedevelopment trend of the market supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan andChongqing.In support of National energy policy and Sichuan and Chongqing "fourbenefits" theory, the main line to gas supply and demand market system,scientificprediction on supply and demand on the market in Sichuan and Chongqing, provide areliable reference for the development of related enterprises. It also helps governmentdecision-making in this area.2) This article attempts to environment-friendly, value-added use of sustainablenational energy strategy background, combined with the country’s current situationand development trend of supply chain. In Sichuan and Chongqing area as an example,theeastablishment of a system dynamics model of supply chain optimizationconditions based on supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan and Chongqing.3) According to the system dynamics modle, analyzed the influence of factors onthe model on the sensitivity analysis, Analysis of supply and demand in Sichuan andChongqing under different scenarios situationin conjunction with the economicgrowth factor. The conclusion shows improve energy intensity can effectively reducethe demand for energy. It will increase the amount of natural gas with economicgrowth and natural gas proportion increase in energy. The proportion of natural gas isthe biggest growth in promotion demand, the second is the economic growth.Finally, the natural gas supply and demand conditions in the supply chainbalance, the natural gas pipeline transportation are proposed networking, realizednatural gas outside the Sichuan and Chongqing region into the local, peaking capacityis strengthening. Not only can meet the requirements of natural gas, but also can provide a variety of source. To realize the diversification, to meet the differentrequirements of users, because they need different natural gas quality.