Multi-angle Statistical Analysis And Prediction Of The NCMS Medical Expenses In Yong-tai County

The New Rural Cooperative Medical(the following refers as "NRCM") is the basic medical insurance of rural residents for combining outpatient and hospital co-ordinating.The system has been basically covered rural residents throughout the country until2013,and the pilot of illness insurance has been popularized fully to establish a more equitable and sustainable social security system.But according to the specific circumstances of each region how to develop effective compensation mechanism of the new rural cooperative fund,predict various health care costs for future periods more accurately for the region of NCMS insured persons and through the running process timely monitor and control unreasonable costs increasing is the urgent problems for the local government and fund managers of NCMS.The statistical theory is used to attempt to analyze the service data of new rural cooperative medical fund from2007to2013in Yong-tai county, Fujian province in the paper. We analyze and predict the applications for reimbursement and hospitalization cost from perspectives like gender of patient, age of patient, season, and diseases type according to the data base of new rural cooperative medical work of Yong-tai county. Clustering analysis were applied to investigate the similarities of medical care reimbursement claiming in different areas. We hope the results can be used as references for administrators when making policies.