| Objective: Population aging brings much influence on the whole society, and itbecomes an important issue in the academics. Many policy designers, policyimplementation and participants pay attention to the issues whether the existing healthcare system running smoothly and the inpatient fund being safe. In order to guaranteethe medical serves of the elderly and support the development of the Fuzhou NewCooperative Medical System (NCMS), this study analyzes operation of NCMS andthe inpatient cost of elderly, and forecasts the number of elderly, expenditure perinpatient of elderly and the financing of NCMS.Methods: According to the data during2009—2013in Fuzhou’s NCMS, thisstudy combines the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. The features ofoperation of inpatient fund are characterized by descriptive statistical methods. Thefuture elderly population is forecasted by multiple-factor projection and the futureinpatient fund is predicted by gray model prediction. Meanwhile, different people’sviews on an aging NCMS are showed by semi-structural interview.Result:(1) NCMS in Fuzhou is running steady;(2) The population structure ofNCMS in Fuzhou presents a clear aging trend. Inpatient services of the elderly aregrowing, cost per inpatient and cost per capita continue rising; the elderly preferrednon-surgical treatment, and their drug costs accounted for relatively large proportion;more elderly chose township health centers for treatment; their major diseases weremainly circulatory system, respiratory system and digestive system.(3) The numberof elderly will be667581; the cost per inpatient will be￥12911; inpatient fund atleast will be￥1.785billion,￥536per capita.Conclusion: The NCMS is facing complex challenges; some suggestions aregiven to make sure the safety of the NCMS. |
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