Study On Variation Of Land Using Based On System Dynamics

The increasingly scarce land resources gradually emerge with the development of economy. Issues how to use of existing land resources efficiently and exploit unused land reasonably were confronted by government. The research of land issue involves complex factors; moreover, it could differ from standpoints and angles of researchers, so that there is no uniform method to do this research and the particular case could be considered particularly.System dynamics method is a more mature method for the research of land use. The characteristics of land in the study area are taking into account, analyzing and the selecting most important groups of variable indicators which affect land use most, constructing corresponding model, repeating commissioning and validating the model, verifying the authenticity of the model. Through adjustment of adjustable variables in the model, and taking certain year data as base, the model can conclude that the simulation data of land use in coming decade. The dynamic simulation results can provide reference for government departments to formulate the land use planning, and provide the basis for the efficient and reasonable utilization of land.In this paper, Chizhou in Anhui Province was selected as object, applying the theory of System Dynamics Method, the characteristics of land use planning of Chizhou was analyzed concretely. To determine the system’s main goal:to analyze the structure of types of different land use, the elements within the system and the connection between the external environment. Sustainable land use system dynamics model was constructed through constructing three sub-systems of population, land and social economy, then, selecting subsystem variables and selecting appropriate regulation of mathematical methods for different parameters. On this basis, year 2002 set as reference, adjusting the variables from the model repeatedly, analyzing different land types and other types of data from 2002 to 2012, the resulting simulation error can be limited within 5%, so the reliable model was obtained. Finally, based on of the reliable model, the land use structure change in the Chizhou during 2010-2030 was simulated, three kinds of different land use plans was obtained depend on social economy of the natural development model, accelerating economic growth, coordinated development respectively. The final result shows that only in the coordinated development of economy development mode, Chizhou can achieve real sustainable land use. The results can service as quantitative auxiliary analysis for the planning department to establish and modify the land use planning, and can also be used for the relevant government departments to have the effect of auxiliary decision-making.