The Study Of Sustainable Land Use Based On System Dynamics

Nowadays, the opinion of sustainable development is accepting widely and becoming the principle which guides government activities. Being the carrier of all resources and environment factors, sustainable land use shows so important that it is the key to gain economics, society and ecology sustainable development. The pressure of demand from every aspect is becoming more and more intense with the increase of population and the development of economy. In China, with the rapid economic development, land resource has been undergoing great change in using mode and quality. Therefore, it is significant to study the change of land resource in both theory and practice. This study chooses the land resource in Kenli County which is located in Huanghe triangle as the research object.The study analyzes the rules of land use change by means of statistical method and the long time serial data froml985 to 2005. It is found that, with the impact of high-speed economic development, the land use change in Kenli County displays the following dynamic features: the quantity of urban construction land and rural residential land keeps increasing; natural gross land is decreasing in quantity; the regional relative change of cultivated land is in great difference; the overall quality of cultivated land is in poor level. Then the study of the land use change in Kenli County based on the dynamic mechanism verifies that the activity of human being is the main driving force of land use change. Moreover, based upon the key effect brought by the urbanization and industrialization in the course of the land use change, this study emphasizes the relationship between the land use change and the economic development as well as the change of population.The article introduces the conception theory of system dynamics and the way of modeling after explaining the theory of the sustainability and sustainable land use. It discusses the feedback mechanism of land use changes, carries out the analysis of relation between cause and effect, draws the system construction flow chart, compiles DYNAMO equation (state variable, speed variable, assist variable)and builds land use structure change dynamic simulation model. With the aid of computer software VENSIM PLE, it analyzes model to carry out system dynamic simulation.Considering fully the relation between sustainable land use and the essential factor with society, economy and environment, it carries out land sustainable use pattern and scene analysis, and mainly discusses three land use scenes on the basis of change of control variances, namely, common increasing mode, high-speed economy development mode, and harmonious economy development mode, thus predicts and simulates the change of the land use structure in Kenli County from 2005 to 2030. As a result, the prediction and simulation should be beneficial to sustainable land use. What's more, it makes the direction and reference for the social and economic sustainable development stratagem in the study area.