Research On Dynamic Financing Risk Evaluation Of Ppp Project

Recently, the research on PPP projects is a heated subject in the field of project management. With the rapid development of the economy and the rising standards of people’s lives, the standards of infrastructure is also improving. Urban infrastructures normally are initiated in the form of PPP projects, featuring large scale, massive investment and long construction period. PPP projects are more complicated than common ones, so do their risk identification, apportionment and evaluation. However, the methods adopted in the research of risk evaluation in PPP projects are not so accurate, ignoring the dynamic situation of such projects. Starting from Incomplete Contract Theory, this paper studies the risk identification, apportionment and evaluation of PPP projects, forming a PPP project financing risk evaluation mechanism-based on Incomplete Contract Theory�'Risk Identification�'Preliminary Risk Apportionment�'Risk Apportionment�'Risk Evaluation�'Empirical Analysis, hoping to make a contribution to the study of PPP project financing risk.Firstly, based on the characteristics of PPP projects, through the comparison of risk identification methods and the analysis of incomplete contract theory and Delphi method, the preliminary risks in the contracting stage and performance stage are identified. Then adopt the factor analysis to reduce the risk factor number and the sub-risk number from 15 to 7 and 36 to 19, respectively, to build a PPP risk identification system. Secondly, according to the theories and principles of risk apportionment and risk preference of participants, build the risk apportionment process and then differentiate the self-bared risks and mutual risks by means of the tri-reference point theory. As for mutual risks, build the random cooperative game model to get the risk ratio of every participant, thus realizing the reasonable risk apportionment. Thirdly, build the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model which is based on the features of PPP projects, to evaluate the value of financing risk of every individual, make explicit the certainty of baring risks, distinguish between their rights and obligations and ensure the maximize returns generated from projects. Finally, take the Qingdao Jiao Zhou bay tunnel as an example. Through identification by factor analysis and combination of the major 5 participants, analyze their risk preference. Differentiate own-bearing risks and mutual risks by risk apportionment process and specify the risk ratio distributed in public sector and private sector and inner departments of public and private sectors. Then, based on hierarchical fuzzy evaluation model, determine the risk value of each participants. Enrich and testify the dynamic risk evaluation theory on PPP projects.This paper build a risk identification system of PPP projects based on incomplete contract theory, a risk apportionment process and a risk apportionment model based on tri-reference point theory. It constructs the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to calculate the risk value and explores a relatively reasonable financing risk evaluation model on PPP projects, making those risks best distributed to different participants in different stages. The differentiation on rights and obligations according to the evaluation value is helpful in every participant’s management of risks and it served for the prevention and control of the financing risks.