Based On The Combined Forecasting Study On The Relationship Between The Development Trend Of New Energy Production And Consumption

Energy is the important guarantee of the human survival and social development, is the important resources in the national and regional economic development. Energy is not only economic resources, but also the important strategic resources. With the globalization of economy, energy security has relation to the country’s security, in order to ensure energy security, the governments have issued a series of energy policy. People enjoying the energy of various kinds of interests at the same time, the problem such as energy shortage, environment pollution and destroy of environment are associated with, they are a serious threat to human survival and development. Therefore, the development of new energy has become a national priority to keep sustainable development. China’s energy has the characteristics of the total amount, per capita less, so, if you want to do to alleviate the contradiction between environment protection and energy consumption, we must vigorously develop new energy, new energy development which includes development of new energy, also for the promotion of new energy consumption, so the research on the relationship between the new energy production and consumption is particularly important.on the basis of this article was to explore the single forecasting method, by Shapley value method, gives the development trend of new energy production and consumption of combination forecast method for determining weights, using historical data respectively production trends combined forecasting model is established and the consumption trend of development of combination forecast model, the empirical analysis of the development of new energy production and consumption trends combined forecasting model is better than single prediction model prediction effect.Through 2006-2013 new energy production and consumption history data, use this production development trend of the combination forecast model is set up and the development trend of consumption combination forecast model respectively for the production and consumption trend forecast in 2014-2020. The result of the production and consumption prediction data external and internal longitudinal comparison, through longitudinal comparison of new energy production and consumption has certain internal tendency, in a state of steady growth, and growth is stable; Through the horizontal comparison of new energy production and consumption exist on the transverse function relations, through mathematical analysis method to establish a set of 2014-2020 new energy function, the relationship between production and consumption and the development of new energy strategy for the future reference and advice.