The Study On Energy Demand Forecasting Of Gansu Province Based On The Combined Model Of ARMA (p,q) And GM(1,1)

Energy is the important material base for the human to survive and multiply and the society to progress and economic to develop. Since the reform and opening, the economy of China has gained rapid development. Along with rapid economic growth, the energy consumption began to increase fast, especially with the new round of rapid development of heavy industry, a huge energy demand amount lead to the contradiction between energy supply and energy demand. The energy shortage has become a key constraint to further economic development issues. Accompanying with the rapid economic development of Gansu Province, the energy consumption also appeared rapid increase in "eleventh five-year plan". It is expected that the economy of Gansu Province will maintain a rapid growth trend in the "twelfth five-year", with the process of industrialization and urbanization becoming further, the energy demand will increase. The issue that wheatear the energy industry in Gansu Province can afford the speed of economic growth has become the concern. Therefore, analyze the characteristics and forecast the future energy demand are significant and realistic to make proper economic strategy and ensure energy safety strategy.This paper analyzed the economic growth of Gansu Province, the status of energy production and consumption and the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. There is long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by co integration analysis and there is a single causal relationship. Because most of the pillar industries of Gansu Province are high energy-consuming industries and they keep rapid development, which has led to the amount of the gap increased between energy production and consumption every year, energy consumption structure is irrational and low efficiency of energy use. In future the high energy-consuming industries of Gansu Province will continue the higher pace, which will generate huge demand for energy.Autoregressive Moving average Model and the Grey Model are established based on observed time series, which could reveal the statistical properties of dynamic data, and predict future value based on past observations. Compared with other prediction methods, they can reflect more comprehensive data characteristics, without losing useful information. This paper used autoregressive moving average model and the gray prediction model to analyze and model. The predict results showed that both models'relative errors are small. Finally, we used the variance inverse method combined the two models to predict the final results. The predict results showed that the relative error of the combination predict is less than that of single two models, which indicated that combination forecast is valid, the accuracy is higher than single model.Finally, this paper proposed the energy policy suggestion appropriated to the reality of Gansu Province: adjust the industrial structure; promote structure energy-conservation, develop and introduce new energy-saving technologies; improve energy efficiency further; develop the recycling economy and low carbon economy; strengthen the government's macroeconomic regulation and control, create a good energy-saving environment.