The Impact Of Import Goods Structure On Economic Growth

Many countries have encouraged export from the time of Mercantilism.In policy, most countries, especially developing countries, actively take export oriented policy, import substitution policy, protection policy of infant industries and the other similar policies; in theory, A lot of scholars home and abroad have discussed from different angles on the export and the relationship between economic growth and export. Exports have provided the important impetus and guarantee for the rapid development of the economy of various countries. However, with the emergence of many countries’ domestic consumption of resources, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the rise of production cost, the deterioration of the environment and other issues, blindly in pursuit of export expansion and ignore the import, economic development will enter the "bottleneck" state.In recent years, although some countries have started to pay attention to import, but only regard import as the accessories to economic development, very little attention to problems of import commodity structure, and a variety of merchandise imports trade did not play a full role on economy. Adjustment of import structure is basically “adaptability”,no specific theory as guidance.Export is the means of demand management, import is the means of supply management, export, as well as import, both can promote economic growth. Adjusting and optimizing the import structure will also have further significance to economic growth.Therefore, this paper around the relationship between import trade commodity structure and economic growth, will make the empirical test by using 18 years data of 50 countries. This paper consists of five parts:The first part: introducing the research background and research significance; reviewing the relevant literature of import goods and economic growth from the three aspects of theoretical,transmission mechanism and empirical; showing study contents, methods, innovation and inadequacies.The second part: giving a preliminary analysis on the current situation and change trend of global import goods trade and economic growth, showing the mutual relationship between import trade and economic growth, Which will provide the basis for next part in establishing the theory model between the import goods trade and the economic growth.The third part: By using the ways of mathematical derivation and economics explanation, showing that import goods trade can promote economy mainly by three kinds of mechanisms,namely technology transfer, capital accumulation and industrial upgrading. establishing a stochastic model between import trade commodity structure and economic growth,showing economic growth can be affected by growth rate of import goods and its fluctuationThe forth part: dividing import goods structure, giving the empirical analysis about the effect of imports each structure and the its fluctuation on economic growth, The results show that the effect of different types of goods to the fluctuations of the economy is different.The fifth part: Giving the concrete analysis in Chinese import goods trade and economic growth, Suggesting that China should control the growth rate of primary products, stabling intermediate goods import proportion, expanding the appropriate of capital goods and consumer goods. Pointing out under the optimal economic growth import structure adjustment scheme is the commodity cost share equal to its share of contribution rate.The sixth part: The research on the theoretical and empirical aspect was summarized. Based on the conclusions, showing suggestions: Paying attention to import, giving a reasonable guide to residents’ consumption and savings, optimizing import trade commodity structure, putting a premium on the quality and efficiency of import goods and so on.For the study on import trade commodity structure and the economic growth is to deepen the economic theory as well as provide certain theoretical reference to the real economic activities.